GOES v FC Lisse prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

GOES 2–6 FC Lisse FC LISSE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Lisse win~~53%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.328

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.304

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Lisse are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: GOES 26%, draw 21%, FC Lisse 53%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on GOES v FC LisseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

GOES win26%

Draw21%

FC Lisse win53%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

GOES

FC Lisse

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Derde Divisie

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Lisse	9	+10	22
8	GOES	9	−2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc lisse winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market55%

Us53%

~~Market~~55%

We make FC Lisse a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · GOES v FC Lisse~~1.28 – 1.99

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 22~~8 v 3

~~The market · FC Lisse win~~55% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Lisse win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GOES win	26%	22%	+4
Draw	21%	23%	−2
FC Lisse win	53%	55%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	44%	−3
GOES or draw	47%	45%	+2
GOES clean sheet	15%	–	–
FC Lisse clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 4.0 8.0 7.5 5.0 2.6 1 5.3 9.3 9.0 5.9 3.0 2 3.3 6.1 5.8 3.7 3 2.7 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GOES down, FC Lisse across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,705 Derde Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.4% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GOES at home: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). FC Lisse away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for GOES, 1.99 for FC Lisse. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GOE 1–1 FCL · FCL 3–0 GOE · FCL 3–0 GOE · GOE 2–3 FCL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

GOES

DWWWLL2–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 1–2

FC LISSE

WWLDWW2–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	10	+20	25
2	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
3	FC Lisse	9	+10	22
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
5	UDI '19	9	+9	17
6	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
7	Poortugaal	10	−2	15
8	GOES	9	−2	14
9	Dongen	9	0	13
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
12	Roosendaal	9	−5	9
13	Groene Ster	9	−7	9
14	TOGB	10	−8	9
15	UNA	9	−2	8
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6
18	EVV	9	−12	2