Gemert v Achilles Veen prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:34

Gemert 2–0 Achilles Veen GEMERT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gemert win~~51%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.363

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.358

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gemert are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gemert 51%, draw 22%, Achilles Veen 27%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Gemert v Achilles VeenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gemert win51%

Draw22%

Achilles Veen win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gemert

Achilles Veen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Gemert	9	−5	10
17	Achilles Veen	9	−12	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gemert winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market51%

Us51%

~~Market~~51%

We make Gemert a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gemert v Achilles Veen~~1.94 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~11 v 17

~~The market · Gemert win~~51% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gemert win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gemert win	51%	51%	0
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Achilles Veen win	27%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	64%	65%	−1
Both teams to score	63%	64%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	81%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	42%	43%	−1
Gemert or draw	73%	74%	−1
Gemert clean sheet	26%	–	–
Achilles Veen clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.7 5.3 3.5 1 7.4 9.4 6.5 3.0 2 6.9 9.1 6.2 2.9 3 4.5 5.9 4.0 4 2.2 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gemert down, Achilles Veen across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023.

Home and away form

Gemert at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Achilles Veen away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Gemert, 1.37 for Achilles Veen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

GEMERT

DWDWLL1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–4

ACHILLES VEEN

LLLLLW0–3 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	9	+17	22
2	FC Lisse	9	+10	22
3	Rijnvogels	9	+16	20
4	Excelsior Maassluis	9	+12	20
5	UDI '19	9	+9	17
6	Zwaluwen	9	−1	16
7	GOES	9	−2	14
8	Dongen	9	0	13
9	Blauw Geel	9	+2	12
10	Poortugaal	9	−4	12
11	Gemert	9	−5	10
12	Roosendaal	9	−5	9
13	Groene Ster	9	−7	9
14	UNA	9	−2	8
15	TOGB	9	−8	8
16	Vvsb	9	−8	7
17	Achilles Veen	9	−12	6
18	EVV	9	−12	2