FC Lisse v Dongen prediction · Derde Divisie

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

FC Lisse are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Lisse 62%, draw 18%, Dongen 20%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on FC Lisse v DongenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

FC Lisse win62%

Draw18%

Dongen win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Lisse

Dongen

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Lisse	10	+14	25
6	Dongen	10	+3	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc lisse winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · postponed, not graded

62% The market–

Us62%

We make FC Lisse a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Lisse v Dongen~~2.40 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 16~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Lisse win

Published at 60%, 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Lisse win	62%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Dongen win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
FC Lisse or draw	80%	–	–
FC Lisse clean sheet	29%	–	–
Dongen clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.7 3.5 2.2 1 6.5 7.5 4.9 2.2 2 7.3 8.9 5.7 2.5 3 5.8 7.0 4.4 4 3.6 4.2 2.7 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Lisse down, Dongen across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

FC Lisse at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dongen away: 1.60 scored, 3.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for FC Lisse, 1.28 for Dongen. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

FC LISSE

WLDWWW3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 6–2

DONGEN

LLDWLW2–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 3–0

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	10	+20	25
2	FC Lisse	10	+14	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
5	UDI '19	10	+11	20
6	Dongen	10	+3	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
8	Poortugaal	10	−2	15
9	GOES	10	−6	14
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
12	Roosendaal	10	−5	10
13	TOGB	10	−8	9
14	Groene Ster	10	−10	9
15	UNA	10	−4	8
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6
18	EVV	10	−12	3