Excelsior Maassluis v EVV prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Excelsior Maassluis 1–0 EVV EXCELSIOR MAASSLUIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Excelsior Maassluis win~~64%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.198

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.091

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Excelsior Maassluis are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Excelsior Maassluis 64%, draw 18%, EVV 18%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Excelsior Maassluis v EVVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Excelsior Maassluis win64%

Draw18%

EVV win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Excelsior Maassluis

EVV

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

Last match: 18 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
18	EVV	10	−12	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · excelsior maassluis winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

64% The market76%

Us64%

~~Market~~76%

We make Excelsior Maassluis a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Excelsior Maassluis v EVV~~2.33 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 3~~3 v 18

~~The market · Excelsior Maassluis win~~76% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Excelsior Maassluis win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Excelsior Maassluis win	64%	76%	−12
Draw	18%	15%	+3
EVV win	18%	9%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	67%	76%	−9
Both teams to score	60%	61%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	90%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	45%	58%	−13
Excelsior Maassluis or draw	82%	91%	−9
Excelsior Maassluis clean sheet	32%	–	–
EVV clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.2 3.8 2.1 1 7.6 8.1 4.7 2 8.4 9.3 5.3 2.0 3 6.5 7.2 4.1 4 3.8 4.2 2.4 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Excelsior Maassluis down, EVV across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Excelsior Maassluis at home: 2.40 scored, 0.60 conceded a game (last 5). EVV away: 1.00 scored, 2.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.33 goals for Excelsior Maassluis, 1.14 for EVV. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

EXCELSIOR MAASSLUIS

WWWWWW3–2 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 2–0

EVV

LDDLLD1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	10	+20	25
2	FC Lisse	10	+14	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
5	UDI '19	10	+11	20
6	Dongen	10	+3	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
8	Poortugaal	10	−2	15
9	GOES	10	−6	14
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
12	Roosendaal	10	−5	10
13	TOGB	10	−8	9
14	Groene Ster	10	−10	9
15	UNA	10	−4	8
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6
18	EVV	10	−12	3