Excelsior '31 v SC Genemuiden prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Excelsior '31 5–0 SC Genemuiden SC GENEMUIDEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC Genemuiden win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.619

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with SC Genemuiden just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Excelsior '31 37%, draw 23%, SC Genemuiden 40%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Excelsior '31 v SC GenemuidenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Excelsior '31 win37%

Draw23%

SC Genemuiden win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Excelsior '31

SC Genemuiden

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	SC Genemuiden	9	+12	21
5	Excelsior '31	9	+14	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc genemuiden winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make SC Genemuiden a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Excelsior '31 v SC Genemuiden~~1.53 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 21~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Excelsior '31 win	37%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
SC Genemuiden win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Excelsior '31 or draw	60%	–	–
Excelsior '31 clean sheet	20%	–	–
SC Genemuiden clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.3 7.2 5.7 3.1 1 6.8 10.3 8.4 4.6 2 5.0 8.0 6.4 3.5 3 2.6 4.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Excelsior '31 down, SC Genemuiden across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Excelsior '31 at home: 2.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). SC Genemuiden away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Excelsior '31, 1.62 for SC Genemuiden. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SCG 2–1 EXC · EXC 1–3 SCG · SCG 0–0 EXC · EXC 0–4 SCG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

EXCELSIOR '31

LDWWWL1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–3

SC GENEMUIDEN

WWLWLW2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–5 · 3–1

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VV Scherpenzeel	9	+8	22
2	SC Genemuiden	9	+12	21
3	ACV	9	+13	20
4	Harkemase Boys	9	+5	20
5	Excelsior '31	9	+14	19
6	TEC	9	+12	19
7	Sportlust '46	9	+3	16
8	Purmersteijn	9	+4	15
9	Sparta Nijkerk	9	+4	14
10	Hoogeveen	9	+4	13
11	ADO '20	9	−1	13
12	Hercules	9	−8	10
13	DVS 33 Ermelo	9	−5	6
14	Staphorst	9	−6	6
15	Dovo	9	−12	5
16	Eemdijk	8	−17	4
17	Hollandia	8	−12	1
18	SVZW	9	−18	1