Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Derde Divisie › EVV v Roosendaal

Back
Netherlands flag

EVV v Roosendaal

EVV
3–3Full time
Roosendaal

Derde Divisie · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
EVV 3–3 Roosendaal ROOSENDAAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Roosendaal win39%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.922
The market’s Brier score0.917

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Roosendaal just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: EVV 39%, draw 22%, Roosendaal 39%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on EVV v RoosendaalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

EVV win39%
Draw22%
Roosendaal win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

EVV

Roosendaal

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
12Roosendaal9−59
18EVV9−122

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · roosendaal winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
39% The market52%
Us39%
Market52%

We make Roosendaal a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · EVV v Roosendaal1.76 – 1.77
Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 SeptW0 D2 L4 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 2 v 918 v 12
The market · Roosendaal win52% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 12:45
Our probability · Roosendaal win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
EVV win39%25%+14
Draw22%23%−1
Roosendaal win39%52%−13
Over 2.5 goals68%67%+1
Both teams to score68%67%+1
Over 1.5 goals86%85%+1
Over 3.5 goals47%47%0
EVV or draw61%48%+13
EVV clean sheet18%––
Roosendaal clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.9%
0123450 3.0 5.5 4.6 2.8 1 5.5 8.9 7.9 4.7 2.1 2 4.6 7.8 6.8 4.0 3 2.7 4.6 4.0 2.4 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+EVV down, Roosendaal across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

EVV

LLDDLL0–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

ROOSENDAAL

WLLWLL3–0 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 2–4

The table

2026/27 · group 2
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Noordwijk10+2025
2Excelsior Maassluis10+1423
3FC Lisse9+1022
4Rijnvogels10+1320
5UDI '199+917
6Zwaluwen10−316
7Poortugaal10−215
8GOES9−214
9Dongen9013
10Gemert10−313
11Blauw Geel10012
12Roosendaal9−59
13Groene Ster9−79
14TOGB10−89
15UNA9−28
16Vvsb10−88
17Achilles Veen10−146
18EVV9−122

The competition's standings before kick-off.