Eemdijk v Sportlust '46 prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

Eemdijk 3–1 Sportlust '46 SPORTLUST '46 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sportlust '46 win~~45%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.687

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.024

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sportlust '46 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Eemdijk 34%, draw 21%, Sportlust '46 45%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Eemdijk v Sportlust '46Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Eemdijk win34%

Draw21%

Sportlust '46 win45%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eemdijk

Sportlust '46

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sportlust '46	10	+4	19
14	Eemdijk	9	−15	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sportlust '46 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

45% The market60%

Us45%

~~Market~~60%

We make Sportlust '46 a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eemdijk v Sportlust '46~~1.70 – 1.99

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 19~~14 v 7

~~The market · Sportlust '46 win~~60% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sportlust '46 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eemdijk win	34%	21%	+13
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Sportlust '46 win	45%	60%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	71%	65%	+6
Both teams to score	70%	60%	+10
Over 1.5 goals	88%	82%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	50%	43%	+7
Eemdijk or draw	55%	40%	+15
Eemdijk clean sheet	14%	–	–
Sportlust '46 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.5 5.3 5.0 3.3 1 4.5 8.3 8.3 5.5 2.7 2 3.7 7.1 6.9 4.6 2.3 3 2.1 4.0 3.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eemdijk down, Sportlust '46 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,709 Derde Divisie matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.6% of games this season, across 179 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eemdijk at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sportlust '46 away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Eemdijk, 1.99 for Sportlust '46. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SPO 4–2 EEM · EEM 1–2 SPO · EEM 4–4 SPO · SPO 0–0 EEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

EEMDIJK

LLLLDW1–2 · 1–5 · 0–4 · 2–7 · 2–2 · 2–0

SPORTLUST '46

WWWLDW4–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ACV	10	+16	23
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	+8	23
3	Harkemase Boys	10	+6	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	+19	22
5	SC Genemuiden	10	+7	21
6	TEC	10	+12	20
7	Sportlust '46	10	+4	19
8	Purmersteijn	10	+7	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	+1	14
10	Hoogeveen	10	+1	13
11	ADO '20	10	−2	13
12	Hercules	10	−10	10
13	Staphorst	10	−5	9
14	Eemdijk	9	−15	7
15	DVS 33 Ermelo	10	−6	6
16	Dovo	10	−13	5
17	Hollandia	9	−11	4
18	SVZW	10	−19	1