Eemdijk v Hercules prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Eemdijk 2–0 Hercules EEMDIJK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Eemdijk win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.548

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Eemdijk just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Eemdijk 41%, draw 20%, Hercules 39%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Eemdijk v HerculesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Eemdijk win41%

Draw20%

Hercules win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Eemdijk

Hercules

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Hercules	9	−8	10
16	Eemdijk	8	−17	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · eemdijk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Eemdijk a 41% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Eemdijk v Hercules~~1.98 – 1.94

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 10~~16 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Eemdijk win	41%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Hercules win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Eemdijk or draw	61%	–	–
Eemdijk clean sheet	15%	–	–
Hercules clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.5%

0123450 4.1 3.8 2.4 1 4.2 7.5 7.3 4.7 2.3 2 3.9 7.4 7.1 4.6 2.3 3 2.6 4.9 4.7 3.0 4 2.5 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Eemdijk down, Hercules across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Eemdijk at home: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hercules away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Eemdijk, 1.94 for Hercules. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~EEM 2–0 HER · HER 1–2 EEM · HER 2–1 EEM · EEM 3–2 HER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 29 Aug

EEMDIJK

LLLLLD1–3 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 0–4 · 2–7 · 2–2

HERCULES

LWLWWD0–3 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VV Scherpenzeel	9	+8	22
2	SC Genemuiden	9	+12	21
3	ACV	9	+13	20
4	Harkemase Boys	9	+5	20
5	Excelsior '31	9	+14	19
6	TEC	9	+12	19
7	Sportlust '46	9	+3	16
8	Purmersteijn	9	+4	15
9	Sparta Nijkerk	9	+4	14
10	Hoogeveen	9	+4	13
11	ADO '20	9	−1	13
12	Hercules	9	−8	10
13	DVS 33 Ermelo	9	−5	6
14	Staphorst	9	−6	6
15	Dovo	9	−12	5
16	Eemdijk	8	−17	4
17	Hollandia	8	−12	1
18	SVZW	9	−18	1