DVS 33 Ermelo v SVZW prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

DVS 33 Ermelo 4–3 SVZW DVS 33 ERMELO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said DVS 33 Ermelo win~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.174

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

DVS 33 Ermelo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: DVS 33 Ermelo 66%, draw 18%, SVZW 16%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on DVS 33 Ermelo v SVZWBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

DVS 33 Ermelo win66%

Draw18%

SVZW win16%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

DVS 33 Ermelo

SVZW

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	DVS 33 Ermelo	10	−6	6
18	SVZW	10	−19	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dvs 33 ermelo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make DVS 33 Ermelo a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · DVS 33 Ermelo v SVZW~~2.38 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~15 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
DVS 33 Ermelo win	66%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
SVZW win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
DVS 33 Ermelo or draw	84%	–	–
DVS 33 Ermelo clean sheet	34%	–	–
SVZW clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.2 3.7 1 7.8 7.9 4.3 2 8.9 9.4 5.1 3 7.0 7.4 4.0 4 4.2 4.4 2.4 5 2.1 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+DVS 33 Ermelo down, SVZW across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

DVS 33 Ermelo at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). SVZW away: 0.60 scored, 3.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.38 goals for DVS 33 Ermelo, 1.08 for SVZW. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

DVS 33 ERMELO

DWLLDL4–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

SVZW

LLLLLL0–3 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ACV	10	+16	23
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	+8	23
3	Harkemase Boys	10	+6	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	+19	22
5	SC Genemuiden	10	+7	21
6	TEC	10	+12	20
7	Sportlust '46	11	+2	19
8	Purmersteijn	10	+7	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	+1	14
10	Hoogeveen	10	+1	13
11	ADO '20	10	−2	13
12	Hercules	10	−10	10
13	Eemdijk	10	−13	10
14	Staphorst	10	−5	9
15	DVS 33 Ermelo	10	−6	6
16	Dovo	10	−13	5
17	Hollandia	9	−11	4
18	SVZW	10	−19	1