Dovo v Harkemase Boys prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Dovo 2–3 Harkemase Boys HARKEMASE BOYS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Harkemase Boys win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.523

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Harkemase Boys are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dovo 34%, draw 25%, Harkemase Boys 41%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Dovo v Harkemase BoysBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dovo win34%

Draw25%

Harkemase Boys win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dovo

Harkemase Boys

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Harkemase Boys	9	+5	20
15	Dovo	9	−12	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · harkemase boys winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Harkemase Boys a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dovo v Harkemase Boys~~1.31 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 20~~15 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dovo win	34%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Harkemase Boys win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Dovo or draw	59%	–	–
Dovo clean sheet	23%	–	–
Harkemase Boys clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.2 9.3 6.7 3.3 1 8.3 11.6 8.6 4.3 2 5.3 7.7 5.6 2.8 3 2.4 3.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dovo down, Harkemase Boys across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dovo at home: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Harkemase Boys away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Dovo, 1.47 for Harkemase Boys. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HAR 1–1 DOV · DOV 2–1 HAR · DOV 1–2 HAR · HAR 2–0 DOV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

DOVO

WLLLLL2–1 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–3

HARKEMASE BOYS

WDWDLW2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VV Scherpenzeel	9	+8	22
2	SC Genemuiden	9	+12	21
3	ACV	9	+13	20
4	Harkemase Boys	9	+5	20
5	Excelsior '31	9	+14	19
6	TEC	9	+12	19
7	Sportlust '46	9	+3	16
8	Purmersteijn	9	+4	15
9	Sparta Nijkerk	9	+4	14
10	Hoogeveen	9	+4	13
11	ADO '20	9	−1	13
12	Hercules	9	−8	10
13	DVS 33 Ermelo	9	−5	6
14	Staphorst	9	−6	6
15	Dovo	9	−12	5
16	Eemdijk	8	−17	4
17	Hollandia	8	−12	1
18	SVZW	9	−18	1