Dongen v Groene Ster prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Dongen 3–0 Groene Ster DONGEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dongen win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.338

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dongen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dongen 53%, draw 19%, Groene Ster 28%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Dongen v Groene SterBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dongen win53%

Draw19%

Groene Ster win28%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dongen

Groene Ster

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Derde Divisie

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Dongen	9	0	13
13	Groene Ster	9	−7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dongen winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Dongen a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dongen v Groene Ster~~2.41 – 1.73

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~9 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dongen win	53%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Groene Ster win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
Dongen or draw	72%	–	–
Dongen clean sheet	18%	–	–
Groene Ster clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 3.0 2.5 1 4.1 6.6 5.7 3.3 2 4.7 7.8 6.6 3.9 3 3.7 6.2 5.3 3.1 4 2.3 3.8 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dongen down, Groene Ster across0–5 goals a side shown (95.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,705 Derde Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.4% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dongen at home: 3.25 scored, 1.25 conceded a game (last 4). Groene Ster away: 1.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.41 goals for Dongen, 1.73 for Groene Ster. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DON 1–2 GRO · GRO 0–0 DON · DON 2–1 GRO · GRO 2–2 DON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

DONGEN

LLLDWL2–5 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 0–4

GROENE STER

DWDLLW3–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 2–1

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	10	+20	25
2	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
3	FC Lisse	9	+10	22
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
5	UDI '19	9	+9	17
6	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
7	Poortugaal	10	−2	15
8	GOES	9	−2	14
9	Dongen	9	0	13
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
12	Roosendaal	9	−5	9
13	Groene Ster	9	−7	9
14	TOGB	10	−8	9
15	UNA	9	−2	8
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6
18	EVV	9	−12	2