Blauw Geel v Poortugaal prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Blauw Geel 1–3 Poortugaal BLAUW GEEL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Blauw Geel win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Blauw Geel are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Blauw Geel 48%, draw 24%, Poortugaal 28%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Blauw Geel v PoortugaalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Blauw Geel win48%

Draw24%

Poortugaal win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Blauw Geel

Poortugaal

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Blauw Geel	9	+2	12
10	Poortugaal	9	−4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · blauw geel winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Blauw Geel a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Blauw Geel v Poortugaal~~1.64 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~9 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Blauw Geel win	48%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Poortugaal win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Blauw Geel or draw	72%	–	–
Blauw Geel clean sheet	31%	–	–
Poortugaal clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.1 7.3 4.2 1 10.1 11.2 6.6 2.7 2 8.0 9.2 5.4 2.1 3 4.4 5.0 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Blauw Geel down, Poortugaal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,691 Derde Divisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024.

Home and away form

Blauw Geel at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Poortugaal away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Blauw Geel, 1.18 for Poortugaal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

BLAUW GEEL

DWWLDW2–2 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

POORTUGAAL

WLLLLW1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27 · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	9	+17	22
2	FC Lisse	9	+10	22
3	Rijnvogels	9	+16	20
4	Excelsior Maassluis	9	+12	20
5	UDI '19	9	+9	17
6	Zwaluwen	9	−1	16
7	GOES	9	−2	14
8	Dongen	9	0	13
9	Blauw Geel	9	+2	12
10	Poortugaal	9	−4	12
11	Gemert	9	−5	10
12	Roosendaal	9	−5	9
13	Groene Ster	9	−7	9
14	UNA	9	−2	8
15	TOGB	9	−8	8
16	Vvsb	9	−8	7
17	Achilles Veen	9	−12	6
18	EVV	9	−12	2