Home › Football › Derde Divisie › ACV v Purmersteijn

ACV v Purmersteijn

ACV

1–1Full time

Purmersteijn

Derde Divisie · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

ACV 1–1 Purmersteijn ACV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ACV win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.056

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

ACV win60%

Draw19%

Purmersteijn win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · acv winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

60% The market–

Us60%

We make ACV a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ACV win	60%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Purmersteijn win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
ACV or draw	79%	–	–
ACV clean sheet	30%	–	–
Purmersteijn clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.2 4.2 2.5 1 7.2 8.2 5.2 2.3 2 7.7 9.0 5.6 2.4 3 5.8 6.7 4.1 4 3.4 3.8 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ACV down, Purmersteijn across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,673 Derde Divisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.2% of games this season, across 143 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

ACV at home: 3.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Purmersteijn away: 1.25 scored, 1.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for ACV, 1.23 for Purmersteijn. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie

ACV

DWWWWL1–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 2–4

PURMERSTEIJN

WLDWLW3–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rijnvogels	8	+18	20
2	Excelsior '31	8	+16	19
3	ACV	8	+13	19
4	Noordwijk	8	+13	19
5	FC Lisse	8	+8	19
6	VV Scherpenzeel	8	+6	19
7	SC Genemuiden	8	+10	18
8	Excelsior Maassluis	8	+9	17
9	Harkemase Boys	8	+4	17
10	TEC	8	+11	16
11	Sportlust '46	8	+3	15
12	Sparta Nijkerk	8	+6	14
13	UDI '19	8	+5	14
14	Purmersteijn	8	+4	14
15	GOES	8	−1	14
16	Hoogeveen	8	+5	13
17	Dongen	8	+4	13
18	Zwaluwen	8	−3	13
19	Gemert	8	−1	10
20	ADO '20	8	−3	10
21	Blauw Geel	8	0	9
22	Roosendaal	8	−3	9
23	Poortugaal	8	−5	9
24	Hercules	8	−8	9
25	UNA	8	−1	8
26	TOGB	8	−5	8
27	Vvsb	8	−6	7
28	Groene Ster	8	−8	6
29	DVS 33 Ermelo	8	−5	5
30	Dovo	8	−10	5
31	Staphorst	8	−8	3
32	Achilles Veen	8	−13	3
33	Eemdijk	7	−17	3
34	EVV	8	−11	2
35	Hollandia	7	−10	1
36	SVZW	8	−17	1