ACV v Dovo prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

ACV 1–1 Dovo ACV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ACV win~~64%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.091

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.120

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ACV are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ACV 64%, draw 19%, Dovo 17%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on ACV v DovoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

ACV win64%

Draw19%

Dovo win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ACV

Dovo

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · acv winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

64% The market66%

Us64%

~~Market~~66%

We make ACV a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ACV v Dovo~~2.18 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 23 v 5~~1 v 16

~~The market · ACV win~~66% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ACV win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ACV win	64%	66%	−2
Draw	19%	19%	0
Dovo win	17%	15%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
ACV or draw	83%	85%	−2
ACV clean sheet	38%	–	–
Dovo clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.8%

0123450 4.3 4.5 2.2 1 9.4 8.8 4.5 2 9.8 9.4 4.7 3 7.1 6.8 3.4 4 4.0 3.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ACV down, Dovo across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ACV at home: 2.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dovo away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for ACV, 1.00 for Dovo. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DOV 1–2 ACV · ACV 1–3 DOV · ACV 3–0 DOV · DOV 1–2 ACV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

ACV

WWWLDW5–1 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 4–1

DOVO

LLLLLL1–4 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ACV	10	+16	23
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	+8	23
3	Harkemase Boys	10	+6	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	+19	22
5	SC Genemuiden	10	+7	21
6	TEC	10	+12	20
7	Sportlust '46	11	+2	19
8	Purmersteijn	10	+7	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	+1	14
10	Hoogeveen	10	+1	13
11	ADO '20	10	−2	13
12	Hercules	10	−10	10
13	Eemdijk	10	−13	10
14	Staphorst	10	−5	9
15	DVS 33 Ermelo	10	−6	6
16	Dovo	10	−13	5
17	Hollandia	9	−11	4
18	SVZW	10	−19	1