Achilles Veen v Rijnvogels prediction · Derde Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Achilles Veen 1–4 Rijnvogels RIJNVOGELS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rijnvogels win~~57%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.278

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.292

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rijnvogels are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Achilles Veen 23%, draw 20%, Rijnvogels 57%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Achilles Veen v RijnvogelsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Achilles Veen win23%

Draw20%

Rijnvogels win57%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Achilles Veen

Rijnvogels

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Derde Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rijnvogels winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

57% The market56%

Us57%

~~Market~~56%

We make Rijnvogels a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Achilles Veen v Rijnvogels~~1.34 – 2.21

~~Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 20~~17 v 4

~~The market · Rijnvogels win~~56% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rijnvogels win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Achilles Veen win	23%	23%	0
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Rijnvogels win	57%	56%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Both teams to score	65%	67%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Achilles Veen or draw	43%	44%	−1
Achilles Veen clean sheet	12%	–	–
Rijnvogels clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.1%

0123450 2.9 6.7 7.0 5.1 2.9 1 4.2 8.3 9.1 6.6 3.7 2 2.7 5.6 6.0 4.4 2.5 3 2.6 2.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Achilles Veen down, Rijnvogels across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,710 Derde Divisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Derde Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.8% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023.

Home and away form

Achilles Veen at home: 1.20 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 5). Rijnvogels away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Achilles Veen, 2.21 for Rijnvogels. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Derde Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

ACHILLES VEEN

LLLLWL2–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

RIJNVOGELS

WWWWLL4–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 5–1 · 0–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27 · Derde Divisie · group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Noordwijk	10	+20	25
2	FC Lisse	10	+14	25
3	Excelsior Maassluis	10	+14	23
4	Rijnvogels	10	+13	20
5	UDI '19	10	+11	20
6	Dongen	10	+3	16
7	Zwaluwen	10	−3	16
8	Poortugaal	10	−2	15
9	GOES	10	−6	14
10	Gemert	10	−3	13
11	Blauw Geel	10	0	12
12	Roosendaal	10	−5	10
13	TOGB	10	−8	9
14	Groene Ster	10	−10	9
15	UNA	10	−4	8
16	Vvsb	10	−8	8
17	Achilles Veen	10	−14	6
18	EVV	10	−12	3