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Thitsar Arman v I.S.P.E

Thitsar Arman

2–3Full time

I.S.P.E

National League · FRI 16 OCT · Yangon United Sports Complex

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 12:37

Thitsar Arman 2–3 I.S.P.E THITSAR ARMAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Thitsar Arman win~~46%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.724

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.990

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Thitsar Arman win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Thitsar Arman 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–21–32
1′KICK-OFF Thitsar Arman v I.S.P.E
36′I.S.P.E score on 36′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Thitsar Arman 0–1 I.S.P.E
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Thitsar Arman win: 46% at kick-off, 18% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' I.S.P.E win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Thitsar Arman win 18%)
37′We said Thitsar Arman at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–23–59
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Thitsar Arman win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
45′HALF-TIME Thitsar Arman 0–1 I.S.P.E
46′SECOND HALF Thitsar Arman 0–1 I.S.P.E
47′35′: S. Niang on the scoresheet for I.S.P.E, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
47′We said Thitsar Arman at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
61′We said Thitsar Arman at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
68′Thitsar Arman find the net on 68′. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–49–22
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Thitsar Arman win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Thitsar Arman 1–1 I.S.P.E
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Thitsar Arman win: 46% at kick-off, 29% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was I.S.P.E win 22%)
69′We said Thitsar Arman at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–50–22
71′A goal for I.S.P.E on 71′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–21–74
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Thitsar Arman 1–2 I.S.P.E
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Thitsar Arman win: 46% at kick-off, 5% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' I.S.P.E win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 21%)
72′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–2 · 5–21–75
73′Thitsar Arman score on 73′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 25–56–19
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Thitsar Arman 2–2 I.S.P.E
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Thitsar Arman win: 46% at kick-off, 25% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was I.S.P.E win 19%)
74′We said Thitsar Arman at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–58–19
74′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 24–58–19
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Thitsar Arman win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
83′I.S.P.E find the net on 82′. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–12–87
83′We said Thitsar Arman at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–3 · 1–12–87
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Thitsar Arman 2–3 I.S.P.E
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Thitsar Arman win: 46% at kick-off, 1% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' I.S.P.E win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
84′5 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–11–89
FTFULL TIME Thitsar Arman 2–3 I.S.P.E
FTThitsar Arman 2–3 I.S.P.E · Thitsar Arman win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Thitsar Arman are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Thitsar Arman 46%, draw 22%, I.S.P.E 32%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Thitsar Arman v I.S.P.EBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Thitsar Arman win46%

Draw22%

I.S.P.E win32%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueYangon United Sports Complex

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Thitsar Arman

I.S.P.E

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

Last match: 9 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Thitsar Arman	3	+2	5
9	I.S.P.E	3	−3	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · thitsar arman winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

46% The market57%

Us46%

~~Market~~57%

We make Thitsar Arman a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Thitsar Arman v I.S.P.E~~2.03 – 1.66

~~Form · National League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D2 L0 · W0 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 1~~5 v 9

~~The market · Thitsar Arman win~~57% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Thitsar Arman win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Thitsar Arman win	46%	57%	−11
Draw	22%	22%	0
I.S.P.E win	32%	21%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	70%	66%	+4
Both teams to score	70%	64%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	46%	+4
Thitsar Arman or draw	68%	79%	−11
Thitsar Arman clean sheet	20%	–	–
I.S.P.E clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.4 3.7 3.6 2.0 1 4.6 9.1 6.9 3.8 2 5.2 8.2 6.7 3.8 3 3.5 5.5 4.5 2.5 4 2.9 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Thitsar Arman down, I.S.P.E across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 614 National League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Thitsar Arman at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). I.S.P.E away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Thitsar Arman, 1.66 for I.S.P.E. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~THI 2–1 ISP · ISP 3–2 THI · ISP 0–5 THI · THI 1–4 ISP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National League this season · since 28 Aug

THITSAR ARMAN

DDW2–2 · 2–2 · 3–1

I.S.P.E

LLD1–2 · 2–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dagon	3	+7	7
2	Shan United	3	+6	7
3	Yadanarbon	3	+3	7
4	Yangon United	3	+5	6
5	Thitsar Arman	3	+2	5
6	Yangon Royals	3	+1	5
7	Sagaing United	3	0	4
8	Ayeyawady United	3	−6	3
9	I.S.P.E	3	−3	1
10	Hantharwady United	3	−4	1
11	GFA	3	−5	1
12	Myawady	3	−6	1