Shan United v Dagon prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Shan UnitedDrawDagon

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Shan United 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shan United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shan United 64%, draw 21%, Dagon 15%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Shan United v DagonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Shan United win64%

Draw21%

Dagon win15%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shan United

Dagon

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 18 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dagon	4	+9	10
4	Shan United	3	+6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shan united winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Shan United a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shan United v Dagon~~2.10 – 0.90

~~Form · National League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L0 · W3 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~4 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shan United win	64%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Dagon win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Shan United or draw	85%	–	–
Shan United clean sheet	42%	–	–
Dagon clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.9%

0123450 6.0 4.0 2.1 1 10.0 9.8 4.2 2 10.9 9.3 4.3 3 7.6 6.4 2.9 4 4.1 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shan United down, Dagon across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 620 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shan United at home: 2.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dagon away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Shan United, 0.90 for Dagon. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DAG 1–3 SHA · SHA 4–0 DAG · DAG 0–0 SHA · SHA 2–1 DAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National League this season · since 29 Aug

SHAN UNITED

DWW2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0

DAGON

WWDW2–0 · 5–0 · 2–2 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yangon Royals	5	+4	11
2	Dagon	4	+9	10
3	Yadanarbon	5	+6	10
4	Shan United	3	+6	7
5	Yangon United	3	+5	6
6	Thitsar Arman	4	+1	5
7	I.S.P.E	4	−2	4
8	Hantharwady United	4	−3	4
9	Sagaing United	5	−4	4
10	Ayeyawady United	4	−10	3
11	GFA	4	−6	1
12	Myawady	3	−6	1