Sagaing United v Dagon prediction · National League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 12:32

Sagaing United 2–4 Dagon DAGON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dagon win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.385

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dagon win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dagon was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 27–24–49
1′KICK-OFF Sagaing United v Dagon
10′A goal for Dagon on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–16–73
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Sagaing United 0–1 Dagon
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Dagon win: 49% at kick-off, 73% now
11′We published Dagon at 49%. Our model now makes it 73%. 0–1 · 11–16–73
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 9–17–74
42′We published Dagon at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 8–18–75
45′HALF-TIME Sagaing United 0–1 Dagon
46′SECOND HALF Sagaing United 0–1 Dagon
55′Dagon score on 54′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
55′We published Dagon at 49%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Sagaing United 0–2 Dagon
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Dagon win: 49% at kick-off, 94% now
56′We published Dagon at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
65′Sagaing United find the net on 65′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–17–80
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Sagaing United 1–2 Dagon
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Dagon win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
66′We published Dagon at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
66′A goal for Sagaing United on 66′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 20–50–30
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Sagaing United 2–2 Dagon
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Dagon win: 49% at kick-off, 30% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Dagon win 30%)
67′We said Dagon at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 20–51–29
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Dagon win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
68′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 19–52–29
73′We said Dagon at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 17–59–24
78′We said Dagon at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 13–68–19
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Dagon win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
82′We said Dagon at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 10–76–14
86′We said Dagon at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 7–84–9
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Dagon win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
88′Dagon score on 88′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–5–95
88′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–5–95
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Sagaing United 2–3 Dagon
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Dagon win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Dagon win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
93′Dagon find the net on 90′. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Sagaing United 2–4 Dagon
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Dagon win: 49% at kick-off, over 99% now
94′We published Dagon at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
94′6 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Sagaing United 2–4 Dagon
FTSagaing United 2–4 Dagon · Dagon win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dagon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sagaing United 27%, draw 23%, Dagon 49%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Sagaing United v DagonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sagaing United win27%

Draw23%

Dagon win49%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sagaing United

Dagon

9Days since last match9

Last match: 9 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dagon	3	+7	7
7	Sagaing United	3	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dagon winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Dagon a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sagaing United v Dagon~~1.38 – 1.92

~~Form · National League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~7 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sagaing United win	27%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Dagon win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Sagaing United or draw	51%	–	–
Sagaing United clean sheet	15%	–	–
Dagon clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.7 6.5 6.8 4.4 2.2 1 4.5 10.4 9.1 5.8 2.9 2 3.6 6.6 6.2 4.0 3 3.1 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sagaing United down, Dagon across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 616 National League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sagaing United at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dagon away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Sagaing United, 1.92 for Dagon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DAG 1–0 SAG · DAG 2–2 SAG · DAG 0–1 SAG · SAG 0–3 DAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National League this season · since 29 Aug

SAGAING UNITED

LWD0–2 · 4–2 · 1–1

DAGON

WWD2–0 · 5–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yangon Royals	4	+2	8
2	Dagon	3	+7	7
3	Shan United	3	+6	7
4	Yadanarbon	3	+3	7
5	Yangon United	3	+5	6
6	Thitsar Arman	4	+1	5
7	Sagaing United	3	0	4
8	I.S.P.E	4	−2	4
9	Ayeyawady United	3	−6	3
10	Hantharwady United	3	−4	1
11	GFA	4	−6	1
12	Myawady	3	−6	1