I.S.P.E v Yadanarbon prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

I.S.P.EDrawYadanarbon

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Yadanarbon 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yadanarbon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: I.S.P.E 31%, draw 24%, Yadanarbon 45%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on I.S.P.E v YadanarbonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

I.S.P.E win31%

Draw24%

Yadanarbon win45%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

I.S.P.E

Yadanarbon

14Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

Last match: 24 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Yadanarbon	5	+6	10
7	I.S.P.E	4	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yadanarbon winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:21 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Yadanarbon a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · I.S.P.E v Yadanarbon~~1.49 – 1.82

~~Form · National League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 10~~7 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yadanarbon win

Published at 42%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
I.S.P.E win	31%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Yadanarbon win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
I.S.P.E or draw	55%	–	–
I.S.P.E clean sheet	17%	–	–
Yadanarbon clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.6 6.1 6.1 3.7 1 5.0 10.4 8.7 5.3 2.5 2 4.1 7.2 6.4 3.9 3 2.1 3.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+I.S.P.E down, Yadanarbon across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 620 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

I.S.P.E at home: 1.50 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Yadanarbon away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for I.S.P.E, 1.82 for Yadanarbon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ISP 2–2 YAD · YAD 3–1 ISP · ISP 2–0 YAD · YAD 1–1 ISP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National League this season · since 28 Aug

I.S.P.E

LLDW1–2 · 2–4 · 2–2 · 3–2

YADANARBON

WDWLW2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yangon Royals	5	+4	11
2	Dagon	4	+9	10
3	Yadanarbon	5	+6	10
4	Shan United	3	+6	7
5	Yangon United	3	+5	6
6	Thitsar Arman	4	+1	5
7	I.S.P.E	4	−2	4
8	Hantharwady United	4	−3	4
9	Sagaing United	5	−4	4
10	Ayeyawady United	4	−10	3
11	GFA	4	−6	1
12	Myawady	3	−6	1