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I.S.P.E v Dagon

I.S.P.E

2–2Full time

Dagon

National League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 12:32

I.S.P.E 2–2 Dagon DAGON WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dagon win~~55%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.940

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.133

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

I.S.P.E win22%

Draw23%

Dagon win55%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 10:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dagon winPublished 9 Oct 10:02

55% The market68%

Us55%

~~Market~~68%

We make Dagon a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
I.S.P.E win	22%	13%	+9
Draw	23%	19%	+4
Dagon win	55%	68%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	61%	64%	−3
Both teams to score	60%	55%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
I.S.P.E or draw	45%	32%	+13
I.S.P.E clean sheet	15%	–	–
Dagon clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.2 7.7 8.1 5.4 2.7 1 4.5 10.4 9.4 6.2 3.1 2 3.1 5.8 5.6 3.7 3 2.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+I.S.P.E down, Dagon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 608 National League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

I.S.P.E at home: 2.00 scored, 3.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dagon away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for I.S.P.E, 1.98 for Dagon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DAG 3–1 ISP · ISP 1–1 DAG · ISP 2–1 DAG · DAG 2–1 ISP

Form · last six in National League

I.S.P.E

LLWWLL1–6 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–4

DAGON

WWDLWW1–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dagon	2	+7	6
2	Yangon United	2	+6	6
3	Shan United	2	+4	4
4	Yadanarbon	2	+1	4
5	Sagaing United	2	0	3
6	Ayeyawady United	2	−4	3
7	Thitsar Arman	2	0	2
8	Yangon Royals	2	0	2
9	Hantharwady United	2	−2	1
10	Myawady	2	−4	1
11	I.S.P.E	2	−3	0
12	GFA	2	−5	0