Hantharwady United v Yangon United prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hantharwady UnitedDrawYangon United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Yangon United 69%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yangon United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hantharwady United 11%, draw 20%, Yangon United 69%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Hantharwady United v Yangon UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Hantharwady United win11%

Draw20%

Yangon United win69%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hantharwady United

Yangon United

7Days since last match1

Last match: 18 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

Last match: 24 Oct · AFC Challenge League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Yangon United	3	+5	6
8	Hantharwady United	4	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yangon united winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

69% The market–

Us69%

We make Yangon United a 69% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–2.1, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hantharwady United v Yangon United~~0.72 – 2.15

~~Form · National League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~8 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hantharwady United win	11%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Yangon United win	69%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Hantharwady United or draw	31%	–	–
Hantharwady United clean sheet	12%	–	–
Yangon United clean sheet	50%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 13.0%

0123450 6.8 11.9 13.0 9.3 5.1 2.31 3.6 9.1 8.9 6.4 3.5 2 3.1 3.3 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hantharwady United down, Yangon United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 620 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hantharwady United at home: 0.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Yangon United away: 3.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.72 goals for Hantharwady United, 2.15 for Yangon United. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HAN 0–4 YAN · YAN 1–0 HAN · HAN 2–2 YAN · YAN 1–1 HAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National League this season · since 29 Aug

HANTHARWADY UNITED

LDLW0–2 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

YANGON UNITED

WWL2–0 · 5–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yangon Royals	5	+4	11
2	Dagon	4	+9	10
3	Yadanarbon	5	+6	10
4	Shan United	3	+6	7
5	Yangon United	3	+5	6
6	Thitsar Arman	4	+1	5
7	I.S.P.E	4	−2	4
8	Hantharwady United	4	−3	4
9	Sagaing United	5	−4	4
10	Ayeyawady United	4	−10	3
11	GFA	4	−6	1
12	Myawady	3	−6	1