Hantharwady United v Yadanarbon prediction · National League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:06

Hantharwady United 1–0 Yadanarbon HANTHARWADY UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hantharwady United win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.597

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Hantharwady United just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hantharwady United 37%, draw 28%, Yadanarbon 35%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Hantharwady United v YadanarbonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hantharwady United win37%

Draw28%

Yadanarbon win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hantharwady United

Yadanarbon

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

Last match: 10 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Yadanarbon	3	+3	7
10	Hantharwady United	3	−4	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hantharwady united winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Hantharwady United a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hantharwady United v Yadanarbon~~1.36 – 1.32

~~Form · National League this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 7~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hantharwady United win	37%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Yadanarbon win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Hantharwady United or draw	65%	–	–
Hantharwady United clean sheet	27%	–	–
Yadanarbon clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.1 8.2 6.0 2.7 1 8.5 12.9 7.9 3.5 2 6.4 8.1 5.3 2.4 3 2.9 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hantharwady United down, Yadanarbon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 616 National League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hantharwady United at home: 0.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Yadanarbon away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Hantharwady United, 1.32 for Yadanarbon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HAN 0–1 YAD · YAD 1–4 HAN · YAD 1–2 HAN · HAN 1–0 YAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National League this season · since 28 Aug

HANTHARWADY UNITED

LDL0–2 · 2–2 · 0–2

YADANARBON

WDW2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yangon Royals	4	+2	8
2	Dagon	3	+7	7
3	Shan United	3	+6	7
4	Yadanarbon	3	+3	7
5	Yangon United	3	+5	6
6	Thitsar Arman	4	+1	5
7	Sagaing United	3	0	4
8	I.S.P.E	4	−2	4
9	Ayeyawady United	3	−6	3
10	Hantharwady United	3	−4	1
11	GFA	4	−6	1
12	Myawady	3	−6	1