Dagon v Thitsar Arman prediction · National League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DagonDrawThitsar Arman

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Dagon 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dagon are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dagon 51%, draw 22%, Thitsar Arman 26%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Dagon v Thitsar ArmanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dagon win51%

Draw22%

Thitsar Arman win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueThuwunna Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dagon

Thitsar Arman

7Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

Last match: 16 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dagon	4	+9	10
6	Thitsar Arman	4	+1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dagon winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Dagon a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dagon v Thitsar Arman~~2.04 – 1.40

~~Form · National League this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D1 L0 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 5~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dagon win

Published at 50%, 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dagon win	51%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Thitsar Arman win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Dagon or draw	74%	–	–
Dagon clean sheet	25%	–	–
Thitsar Arman clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.1 4.1 3.3 1 6.1 9.7 6.3 3.0 2 6.6 8.9 6.2 3.0 3 4.5 6.0 4.2 4 2.4 3.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dagon down, Thitsar Arman across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 620 National League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dagon at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Thitsar Arman away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Dagon, 1.40 for Thitsar Arman. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~THI 2–2 DAG · DAG 2–0 THI · THI 1–2 DAG · DAG 3–1 THI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National League this season · since 28 Aug

DAGON

WWDW2–0 · 5–0 · 2–2 · 4–2

THITSAR ARMAN

DDWL2–2 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yangon Royals	5	+4	11
2	Dagon	4	+9	10
3	Yadanarbon	5	+6	10
4	Shan United	3	+6	7
5	Yangon United	3	+5	6
6	Thitsar Arman	4	+1	5
7	I.S.P.E	4	−2	4
8	Hantharwady United	4	−3	4
9	Sagaing United	5	−4	4
10	Ayeyawady United	4	−10	3
11	GFA	4	−6	1
12	Myawady	3	−6	1