Ayeyawady United v Yadanarbon prediction · National League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:41

Ayeyawady United 1–5 Yadanarbon YADANARBON WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yadanarbon win~~41%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.529

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.285

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yadanarbon win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Yadanarbon 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
1′KICK-OFF Ayeyawady United v Yadanarbon
34′Yadanarbon score on 33′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–71
34′We said Yadanarbon at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 9–20–71
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Ayeyawady United 0–1 Yadanarbon
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Yadanarbon win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–71
40′Yadanarbon find the net on 40′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Ayeyawady United 0–2 Yadanarbon
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Yadanarbon win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
41′We said Yadanarbon at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
45′HALF-TIME Ayeyawady United 1–2 Yadanarbon
46′SECOND HALF Ayeyawady United 1–2 Yadanarbon
49′A goal for Ayeyawady United on 45′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–20–74
49′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 6–20–74
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Ayeyawady United 1–2 Yadanarbon
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Yadanarbon win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
51′We said Yadanarbon at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–19–75
65′We said Yadanarbon at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Yadanarbon win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
72′Yadanarbon score on 72′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Ayeyawady United 1–3 Yadanarbon
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Yadanarbon win: 41% at kick-off, 98% now
73′We said Yadanarbon at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 1–3 · 0–2–98
74′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–98
82′We said Yadanarbon at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
86′Yadanarbon find the net on 85′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
86′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Ayeyawady United 1–4 Yadanarbon
88′A goal for Yadanarbon on 88′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Ayeyawady United 1–5 Yadanarbon
89′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
91′P. K. Nyein scores for Yadanarbon on 85′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Ayeyawady United 1–5 Yadanarbon
FTAyeyawady United 1–5 Yadanarbon · Yadanarbon win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yadanarbon are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ayeyawady United 32%, draw 28%, Yadanarbon 41%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Ayeyawady United v YadanarbonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ayeyawady United win32%

Draw28%

Yadanarbon win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ayeyawady United

Yadanarbon

14Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

Last match: 18 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Yadanarbon	4	+2	7
10	Ayeyawady United	3	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yadanarbon winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market56%

Us41%

~~Market~~56%

We make Yadanarbon a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ayeyawady United v Yadanarbon~~1.20 – 1.39

~~Form · National League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~10 v 4

~~The market · Yadanarbon win~~56% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yadanarbon win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ayeyawady United win	32%	21%	+11
Draw	28%	23%	+5
Yadanarbon win	41%	56%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	48%	60%	−12
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	80%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	26%	39%	−13
Ayeyawady United or draw	59%	44%	+15
Ayeyawady United clean sheet	26%	–	–
Yadanarbon clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.7 9.7 7.3 3.4 1 8.3 13.0 8.4 4.0 2 5.4 7.2 5.0 2.4 3 2.2 2.9 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ayeyawady United down, Yadanarbon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 618 National League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ayeyawady United at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Yadanarbon away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Ayeyawady United, 1.39 for Yadanarbon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~YAD 2–1 AYE · AYE 1–0 YAD · YAD 3–1 AYE · AYE 1–1 YAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National League this season · since 28 Aug

AYEYAWADY UNITED

WLL2–1 · 0–5 · 1–3

YADANARBON

WDWL2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dagon	4	+9	10
2	Yangon Royals	4	+2	8
3	Shan United	3	+6	7
4	Yadanarbon	4	+2	7
5	Yangon United	3	+5	6
6	Thitsar Arman	4	+1	5
7	I.S.P.E	4	−2	4
8	Sagaing United	4	−2	4
9	Hantharwady United	4	−3	4
10	Ayeyawady United	3	−6	3
11	GFA	4	−6	1
12	Myawady	3	−6	1