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Ayeyawady United v Thitsar Arman

Ayeyawady United

1–3Full time

Thitsar Arman

National League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08

Ayeyawady United 1–3 Thitsar Arman THITSAR ARMAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Thitsar Arman win~~40%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.551

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.645

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Thitsar Arman win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Ayeyawady United v Thitsar Arman
2′Little has changed for our model: Thitsar Arman 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 35–25–40
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Ayeyawady United 0–1 Thitsar Arman
30′Zaw Saw Myo scores for Thitsar Arman on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–21–68
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Thitsar Arman win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
41′We said Thitsar Arman at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Thitsar Arman win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
45′HALF-TIME Ayeyawady United 0–1 Thitsar Arman
46′SECOND HALF Ayeyawady United 0–1 Thitsar Arman
48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ayeyawady United 0–2 Thitsar Arman
51′47′ and it is 0–2: Thitsar Arman have scored. 0–2 · 1–6–93
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Thitsar Arman win: 40% at kick-off, 93% now
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Ayeyawady United 1–2 Thitsar Arman
60′Ayeyawady United ahead on 57′ through T. Thant. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–75
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Thitsar Arman win: 40% at kick-off, 75% now
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Ayeyawady United 1–3 Thitsar Arman
FTFULL TIME Ayeyawady United 1–3 Thitsar Arman
FTAyeyawady United 1–3 Thitsar Arman · Thitsar Arman win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ayeyawady United win34%

Draw26%

Thitsar Arman win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · thitsar arman winPublished 10 Oct 10:08

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Thitsar Arman a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · thitsar arman win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ayeyawady United win	34%	39%	−5
Draw	26%	26%	0
Thitsar Arman win	40%	35%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	57%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	60%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	36%	−3
Ayeyawady United or draw	60%	65%	−5
Ayeyawady United clean sheet	22%	–	–
Thitsar Arman clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.6 7.4 6.2 3.2 1 6.8 12.0 8.4 4.3 2 5.3 7.8 5.8 3.0 3 2.5 3.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ayeyawady United down, Thitsar Arman across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 610 National League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ayeyawady United at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Thitsar Arman away: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Ayeyawady United, 1.53 for Thitsar Arman. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~THI 0–0 AYE · AYE 0–0 THI · AYE 0–1 THI · THI 0–1 AYE

Form · last six in National League

AYEYAWADY UNITED

DLWLWL0–0 · 1–2 · 5–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–5

THITSAR ARMAN

DWDWDD0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 5–0 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dagon	3	+7	7
2	Yangon United	2	+6	6
3	Shan United	2	+4	4
4	Yadanarbon	2	+1	4
5	Sagaing United	3	0	4
6	Ayeyawady United	2	−4	3
7	Thitsar Arman	2	0	2
8	Yangon Royals	2	0	2
9	Hantharwady United	2	−2	1
10	I.S.P.E	3	−3	1
11	Myawady	2	−4	1
12	GFA	3	−5	1