Ayeyawady United v Shan United prediction · National League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Shan United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ayeyawady United 8%, draw 16%, Shan United 76%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Ayeyawady United v Shan UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Ayeyawady United win8%

Draw16%

Shan United win76%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ayeyawady United

Shan United

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

Last match: 11 Oct · National League (Myanmar)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Shan United	3	+6	7
9	Ayeyawady United	3	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shan united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

76% The market–

Us76%

We make Shan United a 76% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–2.4, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ayeyawady United v Shan United~~0.63 – 2.44

~~Form · National League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~9 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ayeyawady United win	8%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Shan United win	76%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Ayeyawady United or draw	24%	–	–
Ayeyawady United clean sheet	9%	–	–
Shan United clean sheet	54%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 13.6%

0123450 5.6 11.0 13.6 11.0 6.8 3.51 2.5 7.6 8.3 6.6 4.1 2.02 2.3 2.7 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ayeyawady United down, Shan United across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 615 National League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: National League matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ayeyawady United at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Shan United away: 3.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.63 goals for Ayeyawady United, 2.44 for Shan United. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AYE 1–3 SHA · SHA 3–1 AYE · SHA 2–0 AYE · AYE 1–2 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · National League this season · since 29 Aug

AYEYAWADY UNITED

WLL2–1 · 0–5 · 1–3

SHAN UNITED

DWW2–2 · 4–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dagon	3	+7	7
2	Shan United	3	+6	7
3	Yadanarbon	3	+3	7
4	Yangon United	3	+5	6
5	Thitsar Arman	4	+1	5
6	Yangon Royals	3	+1	5
7	Sagaing United	3	0	4
8	I.S.P.E	4	−2	4
9	Ayeyawady United	3	−6	3
10	Hantharwady United	3	−4	1
11	GFA	3	−5	1
12	Myawady	3	−6	1