Raja Casablanca v Hassania Agadir prediction · Botola Pro

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Raja CasablancaDrawHassania Agadir

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Raja Casablanca 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Raja Casablanca are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Raja Casablanca 54%, draw 29%, Hassania Agadir 17%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Raja Casablanca v Hassania AgadirBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Raja Casablanca win54%

Draw29%

Hassania Agadir win17%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueStade Mohamed V

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Raja Casablanca

Hassania Agadir

5Days since last match16

Last match: 23 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 12 Oct · Botola Pro

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Hassania Agadir	4	+3	7
10	Raja Casablanca	3	+1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · raja casablanca winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Raja Casablanca a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Raja Casablanca v Hassania Agadir~~1.55 – 0.76

~~Form · Botola Pro this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Raja Casablanca win	54%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Hassania Agadir win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Raja Casablanca or draw	83%	–	–
Raja Casablanca clean sheet	47%	–	–
Hassania Agadir clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 11.9 6.0 3.0 1 13.6 13.2 4.5 2 11.7 8.8 3.4 3 6.1 4.6 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Raja Casablanca down, Hassania Agadir across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,241 Botola Pro matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Raja Casablanca at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hassania Agadir away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Raja Casablanca, 0.76 for Hassania Agadir. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAJ 2–0 HAS · HAS 0–1 RAJ · RAJ 1–0 HAS · HAS 1–3 RAJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola Pro this season · since 27 Sept

RAJA CASABLANCA

WDD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

HASSANIA AGADIR

WLWD3–2 · 1–2 · 5–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CODM Meknès	5	+5	10
2	Kawkab Marrakech	4	+2	9
3	Wydad AC	5	+1	8
4	Hassania Agadir	4	+3	7
5	Ittihad Tanger	4	+2	7
6	Maghreb Fès	4	+1	7
7	UTS Rabat	5	0	7
8	Widad Témara	5	+2	6
9	Difaa EL Jadida	4	0	6
10	Raja Casablanca	3	+1	5
11	FAR Rabat	2	+1	4
12	Amal Tiznit	5	−5	4
13	Renaissance Berkane	3	0	3
14	Moghreb Tetouan	5	−6	3
15	FUS Rabat	4	−2	2
16	CR Khemis Zemamra	4	−5	1