Maghreb Fès v Renaissance Berkane prediction · Botola Pro

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Maghreb FèsDrawRenaissance Berkane

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Maghreb Fès 32%, draw 35%, Renaissance Berkane 33%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Maghreb Fès v Renaissance BerkaneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Maghreb Fès win32%

Draw35%

Renaissance Berkane win33%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Maghreb Fès

Renaissance Berkane

11Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 24 Oct · CAF Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Maghreb Fès	4	+1	7
12	Renaissance Berkane	3	0	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make the draw a 35% chance. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Maghreb Fès v Renaissance Berkane~~0.99 – 0.99

~~Form · Botola Pro this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W0 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 3~~5 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maghreb Fès win	32%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Renaissance Berkane win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Maghreb Fès or draw	67%	–	–
Maghreb Fès clean sheet	37%	–	–
Renaissance Berkane clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.1%

0123450 16.1 11.7 6.8 2.3 1 11.6 15.2 6.6 2.2 2 6.7 6.6 3.3 3 2.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maghreb Fès down, Renaissance Berkane across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,238 Botola Pro matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maghreb Fès at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Renaissance Berkane away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Maghreb Fès, 0.99 for Renaissance Berkane. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAG 1–2 REN · REN 1–1 MAG · MAG 1–3 REN · REN 2–0 MAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola Pro this season · since 27 Sept

MAGHREB FÈS

WWDL2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

RENAISSANCE BERKANE

DDD0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kawkab Marrakech	4	+2	9
2	CODM Meknès	4	+4	7
3	Hassania Agadir	4	+3	7
4	Ittihad Tanger	4	+2	7
5	Maghreb Fès	4	+1	7
6	UTS Rabat	4	+1	7
7	Difaa EL Jadida	4	0	6
8	Raja Casablanca	3	+1	5
9	Wydad AC	4	0	5
10	FAR Rabat	2	+1	4
11	Amal Tiznit	4	−4	4
12	Renaissance Berkane	3	0	3
13	Widad Témara	4	−1	3
14	Moghreb Tetouan	4	−3	3
15	FUS Rabat	4	−2	2
16	CR Khemis Zemamra	4	−5	1