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Kawkab Marrakech v Ittihad Tanger

Kawkab Marrakech

2–1Full time

Ittihad Tanger

Botola Pro · SAT 10 OCT · El Harti Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Kawkab Marrakech 2–1 Ittihad Tanger KAWKAB MARRAKECH WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kawkab Marrakech win~~37%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.597

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.599

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kawkab Marrakech win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kawkab Marrakech 37% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
1′KICK-OFF Kawkab Marrakech v Ittihad Tanger
2′Little has changed for our model: Kawkab Marrakech 37% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Kawkab Marrakech 1–0 Ittihad Tanger
45′HALF-TIME Kawkab Marrakech 1–0 Ittihad Tanger
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ittihad Tanger · On: Y. Najari · Off: A. Maali
46′SECOND HALF Kawkab Marrakech 1–0 Ittihad Tanger
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kawkab Marrakech · On: M. El Kayssoumi · Off: S. Essallami
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ittihad Tanger · On: S. Ahannach · Off: A. El Wahabi
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ittihad Tanger · On: Y. Najari · Off: A. Maali
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ittihad Tanger · On: Y. Najari · Off: A. Maali
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Kawkab Marrakech
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Kawkab Marrakech 1–1 Ittihad Tanger
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Ittihad Tanger
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kawkab Marrakech · On: Y. Zghoudi · Off: A. Haimoud
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kawkab Marrakech · On: M. Dadsi · Off: J. Rhabra
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ittihad Tanger · On: A. Lamrabat · Off: M. El Arouch
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Kawkab Marrakech · On: O. Haffari · Off: A. Maamouri
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Kawkab Marrakech
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Ittihad Tanger
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kawkab Marrakech 2–1 Ittihad Tanger
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Ittihad Tanger · On: S. Jarovic · Off: Z. Kiani
FTFULL TIME Kawkab Marrakech 2–1 Ittihad Tanger
FTKawkab Marrakech 2–1 Ittihad Tanger · Kawkab Marrakech win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kawkab Marrakech win37%

Draw35%

Ittihad Tanger win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:00

Venue · El Harti Stadium

Referee · H. Temsamani

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kawkab Marrakech

Formation not confirmed

67 A. El Ouaad

15 A. Bouallali

14 H. Smaali

20 M. Rabja

25 N. Khali

5 O. Mahrous

21 H. Rafa

11 S. Essallami

13 A. Haimoud

77 A. Maamouri

19 J. Rhabra

Coach · Youssef Safri

Substitutes

22 · A. Mhamdi

44 · I. El Alami

26 · H. Fassoukh

8 · K. Tamrani

33 · A. Baadi

99 · O. Haffari

16 · M. El Kayssoumi

88 · M. Dadsi

17 · Y. Zghoudi

Ittihad Tanger

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Barcola

6 B. El Ouadghiri

4 M. Saoud

24 A. El Wahabi

22 Z. Kiani

29 B. Sarr

8 G. Mohutsiwa

15 A. Laaziri

17 A. Maali

10 M. El Arouch

31 I. Dieng

Coach · Abdelhak Benchikha

Substitutes

25 · A. Azmi

27 · S. Khorsa

2 · R. El Meliani

23 · A. Lamrabat

20 · E. El Bellali

21 · H. El Moudene

7 · Y. Najari

99 · S. Jarovic

18 · S. Ahannach

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kawkab Marrakech

Formation not confirmed

67 A. El Ouaad

15 A. Bouallali

14 H. Smaali

20 M. Rabja

25 N. Khali

5 O. Mahrous

21 H. Rafa

11 S. Essallami

13 A. Haimoud

77 A. Maamouri

19 J. Rhabra

Coach · Youssef Safri

Substitutes

22 · A. Mhamdi

44 · I. El Alami

26 · H. Fassoukh

8 · K. Tamrani

33 · A. Baadi

99 · O. Haffari

16 · M. El Kayssoumi

88 · M. Dadsi

17 · Y. Zghoudi

Ittihad Tanger

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Barcola

6 B. El Ouadghiri

4 M. Saoud

24 A. El Wahabi

22 Z. Kiani

29 B. Sarr

8 G. Mohutsiwa

15 A. Laaziri

17 A. Maali

10 M. El Arouch

31 I. Dieng

Coach · Abdelhak Benchikha

Substitutes

25 · A. Azmi

27 · S. Khorsa

2 · R. El Meliani

23 · A. Lamrabat

20 · E. El Bellali

21 · H. El Moudene

7 · Y. Najari

99 · S. Jarovic

18 · S. Ahannach

Our number · kawkab marrakech winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

37% The market37%

Us37%

~~Market~~37%

We make Kawkab Marrakech a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kawkab marrakech win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kawkab Marrakech win	37%	37%	0
Draw	35%	34%	+1
Ittihad Tanger win	28%	29%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Both teams to score	41%	41%	0
Over 1.5 goals	61%	58%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	14%	16%	−2
Kawkab Marrakech or draw	72%	71%	+1
Kawkab Marrakech clean sheet	41%	–	–
Ittihad Tanger clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.0%

0123450 16.0 10.5 5.7 1 12.8 15.1 6.0 2 7.9 7.1 3.2 3 2.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kawkab Marrakech down, Ittihad Tanger across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,227 Botola Pro matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Botola Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kawkab Marrakech at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ittihad Tanger away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Kawkab Marrakech, 0.91 for Ittihad Tanger. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAW 0–2 ITT · ITT 0–0 KAW

Form · last six in Botola Pro

KAWKAB MARRAKECH

WDDDLW2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–0

ITTIHAD TANGER

LDLWWD0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maghreb Fès	3	+2	7
2	UTS Rabat	3	+2	7
3	Hassania Agadir	3	+3	6
4	Ittihad Tanger	2	+2	4
5	Raja Casablanca	2	+1	4
6	CODM Meknès	2	+3	3
7	FAR Rabat	1	+1	3
8	Kawkab Marrakech	2	0	3
9	Widad Témara	3	0	3
10	Wydad AC	2	0	3
11	Moghreb Tetouan	3	0	3
12	Amal Tiznit	2	−1	3
13	Renaissance Berkane	2	0	2
14	FUS Rabat	3	−2	1
15	CR Khemis Zemamra	3	−5	0
16	Difaa EL Jadida	2	−6	0