Kawkab Marrakech v Difaa EL Jadida prediction · Botola Pro

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kawkab MarrakechDrawDifaa EL Jadida

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kawkab Marrakech 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kawkab Marrakech are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kawkab Marrakech 41%, draw 31%, Difaa EL Jadida 27%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Kawkab Marrakech v Difaa EL JadidaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Kawkab Marrakech win41%

Draw31%

Difaa EL Jadida win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kawkab Marrakech

Difaa EL Jadida

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Botola Pro

Last match: 17 Oct · Botola Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kawkab marrakech winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Kawkab Marrakech a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kawkab Marrakech v Difaa EL Jadida~~1.33 – 1.04

~~Form · Botola Pro this season · since 26 Sept~~W3 D0 L1 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 6~~1 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kawkab Marrakech win	41%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Difaa EL Jadida win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Kawkab Marrakech or draw	73%	–	–
Kawkab Marrakech clean sheet	36%	–	–
Difaa EL Jadida clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 11.5 7.9 5.1 1 10.6 14.5 6.6 2.3 2 8.2 8.4 4.4 3 3.7 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kawkab Marrakech down, Difaa EL Jadida across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,241 Botola Pro matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games this season, across 33 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.75 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kawkab Marrakech at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Difaa EL Jadida away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Kawkab Marrakech, 1.04 for Difaa EL Jadida. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.75

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DIF 1–1 KAW · KAW 0–0 DIF · DIF 0–0 KAW · KAW 1–0 DIF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola Pro this season · since 26 Sept

KAWKAB MARRAKECH

LWWW2–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

DIFAA EL JADIDA

LLWW2–6 · 0–2 · 5–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kawkab Marrakech	4	+2	9
2	CODM Meknès	4	+4	7
3	Hassania Agadir	4	+3	7
4	Ittihad Tanger	4	+2	7
5	Maghreb Fès	4	+1	7
6	UTS Rabat	4	+1	7
7	Difaa EL Jadida	4	0	6
8	Raja Casablanca	3	+1	5
9	Wydad AC	4	0	5
10	FAR Rabat	2	+1	4
11	Amal Tiznit	4	−4	4
12	Renaissance Berkane	3	0	3
13	Widad Témara	4	−1	3
14	Moghreb Tetouan	4	−3	3
15	FUS Rabat	4	−2	2
16	CR Khemis Zemamra	4	−5	1