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Difaa EL Jadida v Moghreb Tetouan

Difaa EL Jadida

4–1Full time

Moghreb Tetouan

Botola Pro · SAT 17 OCT · Stade El Abdi

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00

Difaa EL Jadida 4–1 Moghreb Tetouan DIFAA EL JADIDA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Difaa EL Jadida win~~40%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.548

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.305

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Difaa EL Jadida win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Difaa EL Jadida 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–28
1′KICK-OFF Difaa EL Jadida v Moghreb Tetouan
44′Abderrazak Ennakouss scores for Difaa EL Jadida on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–6
44′We said Difaa EL Jadida at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
44′⚽ GOAL · 13' Difaa EL Jadida 1–0 Moghreb Tetouan · Abderrazak Ennakouss
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Difaa EL Jadida win: 40% at kick-off, 75% now
45′45′: Mohamed kassou on the scoresheet for Moghreb Tetouan, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 32–44–24
45′HALF-TIME Difaa EL Jadida 1–1 Moghreb Tetouan
46′SECOND HALF Difaa EL Jadida 1–1 Moghreb Tetouan
47′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 76–19–5 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Difaa EL Jadida
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Difaa EL Jadida 1–1 Moghreb Tetouan
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Difaa EL Jadida win: 40% at kick-off, 31% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Difaa EL Jadida win 31%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Difaa EL Jadida win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Difaa EL Jadida
57′🟨 YELLOW · 53' A moulhami · Difaa EL Jadida
58′We said Difaa EL Jadida at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–52–21
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Moghreb Tetouan
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Difaa EL Jadida · On: zakaria oubraim · Off: reda chgraoui ech
63′We said Difaa EL Jadida at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
67′We said Difaa EL Jadida at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Difaa EL Jadida 2–1 Moghreb Tetouan
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Difaa EL Jadida win: 40% at kick-off, 83% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Difaa EL Jadida win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
68′Difaa EL Jadida find the net on 65′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
69′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 84–15–2
71′We said Difaa EL Jadida at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Moghreb Tetouan · On: Yassine Aboursas · Off: Achraf marzak
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Moghreb Tetouan · On: Ayman Azzouzi · Off: Anouar oussarhan
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Difaa EL Jadida · On: Abdellah Farah · Off: Ibra Lo
77′We said Difaa EL Jadida at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Difaa EL Jadida · On: Anass Mostakime · Off: Mouad mouchtanim
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Difaa EL Jadida 3–1 Moghreb Tetouan
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Difaa EL Jadida win: 40% at kick-off, 99% now
78′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Difaa EL Jadida
79′A goal for Difaa EL Jadida on 77′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
81′We said Difaa EL Jadida at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Difaa EL Jadida win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′Anass Mostakime scores for Difaa EL Jadida on 76′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Moghreb Tetouan · On: Aymane Zerri · Off: Issam Bouabsidi
88′5 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Moghreb Tetouan · On: Yassine Karraz · Off: Hicham Zeghari
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Moghreb Tetouan · On: Yassin Crachna · Off: Nadir El Fadili
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Difaa EL Jadida 4–1 Moghreb Tetouan
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Difaa EL Jadida · On: Yassine Lhjale · Off: Youssef Michte
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Difaa EL Jadida · On: achraf idrissi · Off: Megue
90′Difaa EL Jadida score on 88′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Difaa EL Jadida
FTFULL TIME Difaa EL Jadida 4–1 Moghreb Tetouan
FTDifaa EL Jadida 4–1 Moghreb Tetouan · Difaa EL Jadida win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Difaa EL Jadida are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Difaa EL Jadida 40%, draw 32%, Moghreb Tetouan 28%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Difaa EL Jadida v Moghreb TetouanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Difaa EL Jadida win40%

Draw32%

Moghreb Tetouan win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueStade El Abdi

Line-ups

Difaa EL Jadida

4-3-3

Moghreb Tetouan

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Difaa EL Jadida

Moghreb Tetouan

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Botola Pro

Last match: 9 Oct · Botola Pro

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Moghreb Tetouan	3	0	3
13	Difaa EL Jadida	3	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Difaa EL Jadida

4-3-3

16 A. Ait Wahmane

5 reda chgraoui ech

4 A. Moulhami

20 Boulkassoum diarra

88 Y. Michte

70 Megue

8 ayoub khafi el

6 B. El Idrissi Bouzidi

10 M. Mouchtanim

17 A. Ennakouss

77 Ibra Lo

Coach · Ricardo Chéu

Substitutes

55 · Abdellah Farah

24 · Z. Oubraim

21 · M. Hilali

12 · A. Mostakime

31 · Yassine Lhjale

99 · A. Idrissi

61 · H. Azimi

33 · Israel Usulor

15 · Y. El Ouatki

Moghreb Tetouan

4-2-3-1

25 Zakaria Benabbou

2 Achraf marzak

4 Soulaimane driouache

27 Issam Bouabsidi

5 M. Karmoun

26 Hicham Zeghari

29 Wissam Erbati

31 Nadir El Fadili

15 eddine diae eddaoudi

19 Mohamed kassou

11 Anouar oussarhan

Coach · A. El Karma

Substitutes

36 · Mohamed fakih el

21 · Yassin Crachna

37 · Ayman Azzouzi

12 · Yassine Amaadour

3 · Yassine Aboursas

6 · Y. Karraz

18 · A. Zerri

17 · Mustapha El Crachna

Our number · difaa el jadida winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market55%

Us40%

~~Market~~55%

We make Difaa EL Jadida a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Difaa EL Jadida v Moghreb Tetouan~~1.27 – 1.04

~~Form · Botola Pro this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W0 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~13 v 12

~~The market · Difaa EL Jadida win~~55% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Difaa EL Jadida win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Difaa EL Jadida win	40%	55%	−15
Draw	32%	24%	+8
Moghreb Tetouan win	28%	21%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	41%	49%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	74%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	27%	−6
Difaa EL Jadida or draw	72%	79%	−7
Difaa EL Jadida clean sheet	36%	–	–
Moghreb Tetouan clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.8%

0123450 12.2 8.4 5.4 1 10.6 14.8 6.7 2.4 2 8.0 8.1 4.2 3 3.4 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Difaa EL Jadida down, Moghreb Tetouan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,234 Botola Pro matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Difaa EL Jadida at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Moghreb Tetouan away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Difaa EL Jadida, 1.04 for Moghreb Tetouan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MOG 1–3 DIF · DIF 1–0 MOG · DIF 0–0 MOG · MOG 1–1 DIF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola Pro this season · since 26 Sept

DIFAA EL JADIDA

LLW2–6 · 0–2 · 5–2

MOGHREB TETOUAN

DDD0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hassania Agadir	4	+3	7
2	Ittihad Tanger	4	+2	7
3	UTS Rabat	3	+2	7
4	Maghreb Fès	4	+1	7
5	Kawkab Marrakech	3	+1	6
6	Raja Casablanca	3	+1	5
7	CODM Meknès	3	+3	4
8	FAR Rabat	2	+1	4
9	Wydad AC	3	0	4
10	Widad Témara	3	0	3
11	Renaissance Berkane	3	0	3
12	Moghreb Tetouan	3	0	3
13	Difaa EL Jadida	3	−3	3
14	Amal Tiznit	3	−4	3
15	FUS Rabat	4	−2	2
16	CR Khemis Zemamra	4	−5	1