CODM Meknès v UTS Rabat prediction · Botola Pro

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

CODM Meknès 1–0 UTS Rabat UTS RABAT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UTS Rabat win~~34%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.681

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.454

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UTS Rabat win at 34%.
1′Much as we predicted: UTS Rabat was 34% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 33–33–34
1′KICK-OFF CODM Meknès v UTS Rabat
10′🟨 YELLOW · 8' CODM Meknès
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was UTS Rabat win 32%)
28′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Oussama Daoui · CODM Meknès
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' UTS Rabat
42′SUBSTITUTION · 37' CODM Meknès · On: Larbi Naji · Off: Adnane Berdad
43′7 shots for CODM Meknès, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 27–44–29
44′We said UTS Rabat at 34%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 72–21–7
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' UTS Rabat
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' CODM Meknès 1–0 UTS Rabat
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' UTS Rabat win: 34% at kick-off, 7% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' CODM Meknès win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 72–21–7
45′HALF-TIME CODM Meknès 1–0 UTS Rabat
46′CODM Meknès find the net on 44′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–21–7
46′SECOND HALF CODM Meknès 1–0 UTS Rabat
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CODM Meknès · On: Ayoub Lourhraz · Off: Oussama Daoui
58′We said UTS Rabat at 34%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' UTS Rabat win: 34% at kick-off, 4% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' UTS Rabat · On: Saad Lotfi · Off: Walid Rhailouf
63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' UTS Rabat · On: danny · Off: Hamza Regragui
69′🟨 YELLOW · 66' CODM Meknès
70′SUBSTITUTION · 60' CODM Meknès · On: Mohamed Zrida · Off: Karim koucha l
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' CODM Meknès
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' UTS Rabat · On: Youness Akharraz · Off: Ayoub Ajerrar
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' UTS Rabat · On: Samuel Tebily · Off: Anas Nanah
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' UTS Rabat · On: Omar Arjoune · Off: Abdeljalil Chaynane
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' CODM Meknès · On: Yassine Miloudi · Off: zakaria bahrou
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' CODM Meknès · On: Joseph guede konadu · Off: Onana leandre willy esomba
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' CODM Meknès 2–0 UTS Rabat
90′A goal for CODM Meknès on 88′. 1–0 · 96–3–0
90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' CODM Meknès
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' UTS Rabat
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' CODM Meknès
FTFULL TIME CODM Meknès 1–0 UTS Rabat
FTCODM Meknès 1–0 UTS Rabat · UTS Rabat win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with UTS Rabat just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: CODM Meknès 33%, draw 33%, UTS Rabat 34%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on CODM Meknès v UTS RabatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

CODM Meknès win33%

Draw33%

UTS Rabat win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueStade d'Honneur

Line-ups

CODM Meknès

UTS Rabat

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CODM Meknès

UTS Rabat

6Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Botola Pro

Last match: 8 Oct · Botola Pro

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	UTS Rabat	3	+2	7
7	CODM Meknès	3	+3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CODM Meknès

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Zniti

97 A. Lakhlifi

25 K. L'Koucha

22 Hamza Elowasti

27 S. El Morsli

21 H. El Janati

5 K. El Bounagat

16 Daoui Oussama

6 A. Berdad

10 Onana leandre willy esomba

7 zakaria bahrou

Coach · –

Substitutes

14 · M. Aanane

4 · B. Gaddarine

45 · Joseph guede konadu

2 · A. Lourhraz

30 · Y. Miloudi

29 · L. Naji

18 · A. Nouader

44 · S. Taher

19 · Mohamed Zrida

UTS Rabat

Formation not confirmed

31 W. Rhailouf

21 R. Ait Lemkadem

27 Ayoub Ajerrar

25 M. Assahabi

32 A. Chakir

29 Abdeljalil Chaynane

26 I. Douieb

13 Y. Kajai

3 A. Nanah

15 H. Regragui

1 M. Asmama

Coach · Gugliermo Arena

Substitutes

19 · S. Tebily

35 · Wassim Mellouk

20 · S. Lotfi

34 · Z. Housni

4 · Maodo Dieng

6 · danny

16 · Houssam Bouelainine

18 · O. Arjoune

2 · Y. Akharraz

Our number · uts rabat winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:45 · locked at kick-off

34% The market26%

Us34%

~~Market~~26%

We make UTS Rabat a 34% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CODM Meknès v UTS Rabat~~1.09 – 1.12

~~Form · Botola Pro this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~7 v 3

~~The market · UTS Rabat win~~26% · ours 34%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · UTS Rabat win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 34% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CODM Meknès win	33%	45%	−12
Draw	33%	29%	+4
UTS Rabat win	34%	26%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	38%	38%	0
Both teams to score	46%	44%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	66%	64%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
CODM Meknès or draw	66%	74%	−8
CODM Meknès clean sheet	33%	–	–
UTS Rabat clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 15.2%

0123450 13.3 10.3 6.9 2.6 1 9.9 15.2 7.4 2.8 2 6.5 7.1 4.0 3 2.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CODM Meknès down, UTS Rabat across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,234 Botola Pro matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CODM Meknès at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). UTS Rabat away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for CODM Meknès, 1.12 for UTS Rabat. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UTS 2–0 COD · COD 1–1 UTS · COD 0–0 UTS · UTS 0–0 COD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola Pro this season · since 26 Sept

CODM MEKNÈS

WLD6–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

UTS RABAT

WWD2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hassania Agadir	4	+3	7
2	Ittihad Tanger	4	+2	7
3	UTS Rabat	3	+2	7
4	Maghreb Fès	4	+1	7
5	Kawkab Marrakech	3	+1	6
6	Raja Casablanca	3	+1	5
7	CODM Meknès	3	+3	4
8	FAR Rabat	2	+1	4
9	Wydad AC	3	0	4
10	Widad Témara	3	0	3
11	Renaissance Berkane	3	0	3
12	Moghreb Tetouan	3	0	3
13	Difaa EL Jadida	3	−3	3
14	Amal Tiznit	3	−4	3
15	FUS Rabat	4	−2	2
16	CR Khemis Zemamra	4	−5	1