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Amal Tiznit v Difaa EL Jadida

Amal Tiznit

2–5Full time

Difaa EL Jadida

Botola Pro · SAT 10 OCT · Stade El Bachir

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Amal Tiznit 2–5 Difaa EL Jadida AMAL TIZNIT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Amal Tiznit win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.772

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.740

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Amal Tiznit win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: Amal Tiznit was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
3′Much as we predicted: Amal Tiznit was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
22′Difaa EL Jadida find the net on 10′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–61
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Difaa EL Jadida win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Amal Tiznit win 15%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Amal Tiznit win: 40% at kick-off, 42% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Amal Tiznit win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Difaa EL Jadida win 30%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Amal Tiznit win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Difaa EL Jadida win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Amal Tiznit win 15%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Amal Tiznit win: 40% at kick-off, 42% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Amal Tiznit win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Difaa EL Jadida win 30%)
44′Difaa EL Jadida find the net on 42′. 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–91
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Amal Tiznit win: 40% at kick-off, 42% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Amal Tiznit win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Difaa EL Jadida win 30%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Amal Tiznit win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Difaa EL Jadida win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Amal Tiznit win 15%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Amal Tiznit win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Difaa EL Jadida win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Amal Tiznit win 2%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Amal Tiznit win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Difaa EL Jadida win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Amal Tiznit win 2%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Amal Tiznit win: 40% at kick-off, 42% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Amal Tiznit win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Difaa EL Jadida win 30%)
45′HALF-TIME Amal Tiznit 1–3 Difaa EL Jadida
46′SECOND HALF Amal Tiznit 1–3 Difaa EL Jadida
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Amal Tiznit · On: O. Housni · Off: K. Holete
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Amal Tiznit · On: S. P. Sodiq · Off: S. El Azhari
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Amal Tiznit 1–4 Difaa EL Jadida
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Amal Tiznit
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Amal Tiznit · On: T. Asstati · Off: H. Bouhbouh
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Amal Tiznit · On: A. Ouaarab · Off: Y. Anouar
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Difaa EL Jadida · On: Y. Lhjale · Off: A. Moulhami
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Difaa EL Jadida
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Difaa EL Jadida · On: B. El Idrissi Bouzidi · Off: M. Mouchtanim Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Difaa EL Jadida · On: A. Mostakime · Off: A. Ennakouss
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Amal Tiznit · On: Y. Sakhi · Off: A. Adila
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Amal Tiznit 2–4 Difaa EL Jadida
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Amal Tiznit 2–5 Difaa EL Jadida
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Difaa EL Jadida
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Difaa EL Jadida · On: A. Farah · Off: I. Lo
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Difaa EL Jadida · On: I. Usulor · Off: P. Pessoa
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Amal Tiznit
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Amal Tiznit
FTFULL TIME Amal Tiznit 2–5 Difaa EL Jadida
FTAmal Tiznit 2–5 Difaa EL Jadida · Amal Tiznit win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Amal Tiznit win40%

Draw31%

Difaa EL Jadida win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:00

Venue · Stade El Bachir

Referee · R. Charaf

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Amal Tiznit

Formation not confirmed

22 Y. Faqir

6 H. Bouhbouh

4 K. Holete

13 J. Assouab

25 A. El Malki

66 M. Tounkara

14 A. Adila

92 Y. Zraa

21 S. El Azhari

16 Y. Anouar

33 Z. Essalhi

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. El Jourbaoui

3 · A. El Kouhil

40 · T. Asstati

98 · O. Housni

8 · K. Noureddine

36 · S. P. Sodiq

99 · M. Goulouss

10 · A. Ouaarab

17 · Y. Sakhi

Difaa EL Jadida

Formation not confirmed

30 B. Niasse

5 R. Ech Chgraoui

4 A. Moulhami

20 B. Diarra

88 Y. Michte

70 P. Pessoa

8 A. El Khafi

6 B. El Idrissi Bouzidi

10 M. Mouchtanim

77 I. Lo

17 A. Ennakouss

Coach · Ricardo Cheu

Substitutes

16 · A. Ait Wahmane

31 · Y. Lhjale

33 · I. Usulor

11 · O. Hmamouch

12 · A. Mostakime

15 · Y. El Ouatki

21 · M. Hilali

99 · A. Idrissi

55 · A. Farah

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Amal Tiznit

Formation not confirmed

22 Y. Faqir

6 H. Bouhbouh

4 K. Holete

13 J. Assouab

25 A. El Malki

66 M. Tounkara

14 A. Adila

92 Y. Zraa

21 S. El Azhari

16 Y. Anouar

33 Z. Essalhi

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. El Jourbaoui

3 · A. El Kouhil

40 · T. Asstati

98 · O. Housni

8 · K. Noureddine

36 · S. P. Sodiq

99 · M. Goulouss

10 · A. Ouaarab

17 · Y. Sakhi

Difaa EL Jadida

Formation not confirmed

30 B. Niasse

5 R. Ech Chgraoui

4 A. Moulhami

20 B. Diarra

88 Y. Michte

70 P. Pessoa

8 A. El Khafi

6 B. El Idrissi Bouzidi

10 M. Mouchtanim

77 I. Lo

17 A. Ennakouss

Coach · Ricardo Cheu

Substitutes

16 · A. Ait Wahmane

31 · Y. Lhjale

33 · I. Usulor

11 · O. Hmamouch

12 · A. Mostakime

15 · Y. El Ouatki

21 · M. Hilali

99 · A. Idrissi

55 · A. Farah

Our number · amal tiznit winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Amal Tiznit a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · amal tiznit win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Amal Tiznit win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	31%	32%	0
Difaa EL Jadida win	28%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	42%	35%	+6
Both teams to score	49%	43%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	60%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	21%	17%	+4
Amal Tiznit or draw	72%	70%	+1
Amal Tiznit clean sheet	35%	–	–
Difaa EL Jadida clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.7%

0123450 11.7 8.2 5.3 1 10.5 14.7 6.7 2.4 2 8.0 8.2 4.3 3 3.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Amal Tiznit down, Difaa EL Jadida across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,227 Botola Pro matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Botola Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Amal Tiznit at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Difaa EL Jadida away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Amal Tiznit, 1.05 for Difaa EL Jadida. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Botola Pro

AMAL TIZNIT

DDLW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0

DIFAA EL JADIDA

WDDLLL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 2–6 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Maghreb Fès	3	+2	7
2	UTS Rabat	3	+2	7
3	Hassania Agadir	3	+3	6
4	Ittihad Tanger	2	+2	4
5	Raja Casablanca	2	+1	4
6	CODM Meknès	2	+3	3
7	FAR Rabat	1	+1	3
8	Kawkab Marrakech	2	0	3
9	Widad Témara	3	0	3
10	Wydad AC	2	0	3
11	Moghreb Tetouan	3	0	3
12	Amal Tiznit	2	−1	3
13	Renaissance Berkane	2	0	2
14	FUS Rabat	3	−2	1
15	CR Khemis Zemamra	3	−5	0
16	Difaa EL Jadida	2	−6	0