Amal Tiznit v CODM Meknès prediction · Botola Pro

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Amal Tiznit 1–2 CODM Meknès AMAL TIZNIT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Amal Tiznit win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.708

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Amal Tiznit win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Amal Tiznit was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–33–31
1′KICK-OFF Amal Tiznit v CODM Meknès
17′A goal for CODM Meknès on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–21–66
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Amal Tiznit 0–1 CODM Meknès
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Amal Tiznit win: 36% at kick-off, 13% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' CODM Meknès win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Amal Tiznit win 35%)
18′We said Amal Tiznit at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–21–66
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–67
37′We said Amal Tiznit at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Amal Tiznit
45′HALF-TIME Amal Tiznit 0–1 CODM Meknès
45′SECOND HALF Amal Tiznit 0–1 CODM Meknès
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Amal Tiznit win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
60′We said Amal Tiznit at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–19–76
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' CODM Meknès · On: Yassine Miloudi · Off: Onana leandre willy esomba
74′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Amal Tiznit · On: Youssef Anouar · Off: S. P. Sodiq
74′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Amal Tiznit · On: K. Noureddine · Off: ayoub adila
77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' CODM Meknès
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Amal Tiznit · On: hussan boulaabar · Off: Yassine Zraa
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Amal Tiznit · On: O. Fadiz · Off: A. Ouaarab
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Amal Tiznit 0–2 CODM Meknès
85′CODM Meknès score on 83′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′SUBSTITUTION · 78' CODM Meknès · On: Joseph guede konadu · Off: zakaria bahrou
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Amal Tiznit 1–2 CODM Meknès
88′Amal Tiznit find the net on 86′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
88′SUBSTITUTION · 78' CODM Meknès · On: Taoufik Razko · Off: Mohamed Zrida
90′Full time, 1–2. We called Amal Tiznit at 36% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–2 · 0–0–100
94′Amal Tiznit pull one back on 85′ through Z. Essalhi. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
94′SUBSTITUTION · 89' CODM Meknès · On: Badr Gaddarine · Off: Saad Morsli
FTFULL TIME Amal Tiznit 1–2 CODM Meknès
FTAmal Tiznit 1–2 CODM Meknès · Amal Tiznit win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Amal Tiznit just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Amal Tiznit 36%, draw 33%, CODM Meknès 31%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Amal Tiznit v CODM MeknèsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Amal Tiznit win36%

Draw33%

CODM Meknès win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 5

Line-ups

Amal Tiznit

CODM Meknès

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Amal Tiznit

CODM Meknès

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Botola Pro

Last match: 17 Oct · Botola Pro

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	CODM Meknès	4	+4	7
11	Amal Tiznit	4	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Amal Tiznit

Formation not confirmed

14 Ayoub Adila

22 Y. Faqir

66 M. Tounkara

36 S. P. Sodiq

98 O. Houssni

33 Z. Essalhi

25 A. El Malki

6 H. Bouhbouh

13 J. Assouab

10 A. Ouaarab

92 Y. Zraa

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · Y. Anouar

40 · Tarik Asstati

55 · Hassan Boulaabar

3 · A. El Kouhil

17 · O. Fadiz

99 · M. Goullous

4 · Koffi holete

8 · K. Noureddine

1 · Youssef Tafay

CODM Meknès

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Zniti

7 zakaria bahrou

5 K. El Bounagat

21 H. El Janati

27 S. El Morsli

22 Hamza Elowasti

97 A. Lakhlifi

2 A. Lourhraz

29 L. Naji

19 Mohamed Zrida

10 Onana leandre willy esomba

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · Z. Eddib

4 · B. Gaddarine

45 · Joseph guede konadu

25 · K. L'Koucha

30 · Y. Miloudi

18 · A. Nouader

17 · T. Razko

44 · S. Taher

14 · M. Aanane

Our number · amal tiznit winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Amal Tiznit a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Amal Tiznit v CODM Meknès~~1.17 – 1.07

~~Form · Botola Pro this season · since 24 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~11 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Amal Tiznit win	36%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
CODM Meknès win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Amal Tiznit or draw	69%	–	–
Amal Tiznit clean sheet	35%	–	–
CODM Meknès clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 15.0%

0123450 12.9 9.5 6.1 2.2 1 10.5 15.0 7.0 2.5 2 7.3 7.6 4.1 3 2.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Amal Tiznit down, CODM Meknès across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,238 Botola Pro matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Amal Tiznit at home: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 3). CODM Meknès away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Amal Tiznit, 1.07 for CODM Meknès. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola Pro this season · since 24 Sept

AMAL TIZNIT

LWLD1–3 · 1–0 · 2–5 · 1–1

CODM MEKNÈS

WLDW6–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kawkab Marrakech	4	+2	9
2	CODM Meknès	4	+4	7
3	Hassania Agadir	4	+3	7
4	Ittihad Tanger	4	+2	7
5	Maghreb Fès	4	+1	7
6	UTS Rabat	4	+1	7
7	Difaa EL Jadida	4	0	6
8	Raja Casablanca	3	+1	5
9	Wydad AC	4	0	5
10	FAR Rabat	2	+1	4
11	Amal Tiznit	4	−4	4
12	Renaissance Berkane	3	0	3
13	Widad Témara	4	−1	3
14	Moghreb Tetouan	4	−3	3
15	FUS Rabat	4	−2	2
16	CR Khemis Zemamra	4	−5	1