Yacoub El Mansour v Wydad Fès prediction · Botola 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

Yacoub El Mansour 2–2 Wydad Fès YACOUB EL MANSOUR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yacoub El Mansour win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.767

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yacoub El Mansour are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yacoub El Mansour 49%, draw 30%, Wydad Fès 21%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Yacoub El Mansour v Wydad FèsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Yacoub El Mansour win49%

Draw30%

Wydad Fès win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yacoub El Mansour

Wydad Fès

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Botola 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yacoub el mansour winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Yacoub El Mansour a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yacoub El Mansour v Wydad Fès~~1.41 – 0.84

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W3 D1 L0 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~1 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yacoub El Mansour win	49%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Wydad Fès win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Yacoub El Mansour or draw	79%	–	–
Yacoub El Mansour clean sheet	43%	–	–
Wydad Fès clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 12.2 7.4 3.8 1 13.3 13.9 5.2 2 10.4 8.7 3.7 3 4.9 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yacoub El Mansour down, Wydad Fès across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Botola 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yacoub El Mansour at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Wydad Fès away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Yacoub El Mansour, 0.84 for Wydad Fès. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WYD 0–1 YAC · YAC 1–1 WYD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept

YACOUB EL MANSOUR

WWWD2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

WYDAD FÈS

WWLW1–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	4	+4	10
2	Olympique Dcheïra	4	+5	9
3	Wydad Fès	4	+5	9
4	Ittihad Khemisset	4	+2	9
5	Olympique Safi	4	+2	8
6	USM Oujda	4	−1	7
7	Stade Marocain	4	0	6
8	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5
9	El Massira	4	0	5
10	Olympique Khouribga	4	+2	4
11	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
12	KAC Kenitra	4	−1	4
13	Union Sportive Boujaad	4	−3	3
14	Chabab Mohammédia	4	−3	2
15	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	4	−6	1
16	Riadi Salmi	4	−6	1