Yacoub El Mansour v El Massira prediction · Botola 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Yacoub El MansourDrawEl Massira

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Yacoub El Mansour 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yacoub El Mansour are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yacoub El Mansour 47%, draw 31%, El Massira 22%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Yacoub El Mansour v El MassiraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Yacoub El Mansour win47%

Draw31%

El Massira win22%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yacoub El Mansour

El Massira

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Botola 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · yacoub el mansour winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Yacoub El Mansour a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yacoub El Mansour v El Massira~~1.34 – 0.83

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W3 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 5~~1 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yacoub El Mansour win	47%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
El Massira win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Yacoub El Mansour or draw	78%	–	–
Yacoub El Mansour clean sheet	44%	–	–
El Massira clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 13.1 7.9 4.0 1 13.7 14.2 5.2 2 10.2 8.4 3.5 3 4.6 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yacoub El Mansour down, El Massira across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,480 Botola 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.9% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yacoub El Mansour at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). El Massira away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Yacoub El Mansour, 0.83 for El Massira. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ELM 2–2 YAC · YAC 2–2 ELM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept

YACOUB EL MANSOUR

WWWDD2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

EL MASSIRA

WDDL2–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	5	+4	11
2	Wydad Fès	5	+5	10
3	Olympique Dcheïra	5	+5	10
4	Ittihad Khemisset	4	+2	9
5	Olympique Safi	5	0	8
6	Stade Marocain	5	0	7
7	USM Oujda	4	−1	7
8	Olympique Khouribga	5	+2	5
9	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5
10	El Massira	4	0	5
11	KAC Kenitra	5	−1	5
12	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
13	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	5	−4	4
14	Union Sportive Boujaad	4	−3	3
15	Chabab Mohammédia	4	−3	2
16	Riadi Salmi	4	−6	1