Wydad Fès v USM Oujda prediction · Botola 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Wydad Fès 4–1 USM Oujda WYDAD FÈS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wydad Fès win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.482

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wydad Fès win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wydad Fès was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–32–24
1′KICK-OFF Wydad Fès v USM Oujda
15′We published Wydad Fès at 44%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–7
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Wydad Fès 1–0 USM Oujda
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Wydad Fès win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
45′HALF-TIME Wydad Fès 1–0 USM Oujda
46′SECOND HALF Wydad Fès 1–0 USM Oujda
47′We published Wydad Fès at 44%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
53′We published Wydad Fès at 44%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Wydad Fès 2–0 USM Oujda
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Wydad Fès win: 44% at kick-off, 97% now
56′We published Wydad Fès at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Wydad Fès 3–0 USM Oujda
57′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′We said Wydad Fès at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–0 · 5–91–4 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
89′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Wydad Fès 4–0 USM Oujda
91′We said Wydad Fès at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–0 · 3–94–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
93′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Wydad Fès 4–1 USM Oujda
FTFULL TIME Wydad Fès 4–1 USM Oujda
FTWydad Fès 4–1 USM Oujda · Wydad Fès win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wydad Fès are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wydad Fès 44%, draw 32%, USM Oujda 24%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Wydad Fès v USM OujdaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wydad Fès win44%

Draw32%

USM Oujda win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wydad Fès

USM Oujda

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Botola 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	USM Oujda	3	+2	7
5	Wydad Fès	3	+2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · wydad fès winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Wydad Fès a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wydad Fès v USM Oujda~~1.24 – 0.86

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W2 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~5 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wydad Fès win	44%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
USM Oujda win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Wydad Fès or draw	76%	–	–
Wydad Fès clean sheet	43%	–	–
USM Oujda clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 13.9 8.9 4.5 1 13.6 14.5 5.6 2 9.4 8.0 3.4 3 3.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wydad Fès down, USM Oujda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Botola 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wydad Fès at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). USM Oujda away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Wydad Fès, 0.86 for USM Oujda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~USM 1–0 WYD · WYD 2–0 USM · WYD 2–0 USM · USM 2–1 WYD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept

WYDAD FÈS

WWL1–0 · 3–0 · 0–2

USM OUJDA

WWD2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	4	+4	10
2	Ittihad Khemisset	3	+3	9
3	USM Oujda	3	+2	7
4	Olympique Dcheïra	3	+2	6
5	Wydad Fès	3	+2	6
6	Stade Marocain	4	0	6
7	Olympique Safi	3	+1	5
8	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5
9	El Massira	4	0	5
10	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
11	KAC Kenitra	4	−1	4
12	Olympique Khouribga	3	+2	3
13	Union Sportive Boujaad	4	−3	3
14	Chabab Mohammédia	3	−3	1
15	Riadi Salmi	3	−3	1
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	4	−6	1