USM Oujda v Riadi Salmi prediction · Botola 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

USM OujdaDrawRiadi Salmi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · USM Oujda 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

USM Oujda are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: USM Oujda 44%, draw 31%, Riadi Salmi 25%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on USM Oujda v Riadi SalmiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

USM Oujda win44%

Draw31%

Riadi Salmi win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

USM Oujda

Riadi Salmi

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Botola 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	USM Oujda	4	−1	7
16	Riadi Salmi	4	−6	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · usm oujda winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make USM Oujda a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · USM Oujda v Riadi Salmi~~1.31 – 0.92

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 1~~6 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
USM Oujda win	44%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Riadi Salmi win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
USM Oujda or draw	75%	–	–
USM Oujda clean sheet	40%	–	–
Riadi Salmi clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 12.5 8.3 4.5 1 12.5 14.4 5.9 2 9.2 8.4 3.9 3 4.1 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+USM Oujda down, Riadi Salmi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,480 Botola 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.9% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

USM Oujda at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Riadi Salmi away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for USM Oujda, 0.92 for Riadi Salmi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RIA 2–0 USM · USM 3–2 RIA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 27 Sept

USM OUJDA

WWDL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–4

RIADI SALMI

LDLL0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	5	+4	11
2	Wydad Fès	5	+5	10
3	Olympique Dcheïra	5	+5	10
4	Ittihad Khemisset	4	+2	9
5	Olympique Safi	5	0	8
6	USM Oujda	4	−1	7
7	Stade Marocain	4	0	6
8	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5
9	El Massira	4	0	5
10	KAC Kenitra	5	−1	5
11	Olympique Khouribga	4	+2	4
12	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
13	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	5	−4	4
14	Union Sportive Boujaad	4	−3	3
15	Chabab Mohammédia	4	−3	2
16	Riadi Salmi	4	−6	1