Union Sportive Boujaad v Yacoub El Mansour prediction · Botola 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Union Sportive Boujaad 1–1 Yacoub El Mansour UNION SPORTIVE BOUJAAD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Sportive Boujaad win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.660

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Sportive Boujaad are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union Sportive Boujaad 39%, draw 34%, Yacoub El Mansour 27%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Union Sportive Boujaad v Yacoub El MansourBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Union Sportive Boujaad win39%

Draw34%

Yacoub El Mansour win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union Sportive Boujaad

Yacoub El Mansour

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Botola 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union sportive boujaad winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Union Sportive Boujaad a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union Sportive Boujaad v Yacoub El Mansour~~1.10 – 0.89

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 2 v 9~~12 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Sportive Boujaad win	39%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Yacoub El Mansour win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Union Sportive Boujaad or draw	73%	–	–
Union Sportive Boujaad clean sheet	41%	–	–
Yacoub El Mansour clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.4%

0123450 15.4 10.5 5.4 1 13.4 14.9 5.9 2 8.3 7.3 3.3 3 3.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Sportive Boujaad down, Yacoub El Mansour across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Botola 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Union Sportive Boujaad at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Yacoub El Mansour away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Union Sportive Boujaad, 0.89 for Yacoub El Mansour. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept

UNION SPORTIVE BOUJAAD

DLD0–0 · 0–3 · 1–1

YACOUB EL MANSOUR

WWW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	3	+4	9
2	Ittihad Khemisset	3	+3	9
3	USM Oujda	3	+2	7
4	Olympique Dcheïra	3	+2	6
5	Wydad Fès	3	+2	6
6	El Massira	3	+1	5
7	Olympique Safi	3	+1	5
8	Mouloudia Oujda	3	0	4
9	Olympique Khouribga	3	+2	3
10	Chabab Ben Guerir	3	0	3
11	Stade Marocain	3	−1	3
12	Union Sportive Boujaad	3	−3	2
13	KAC Kenitra	3	−2	1
14	Chabab Mohammédia	3	−3	1
15	Riadi Salmi	3	−3	1
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	3	−5	1