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Union Sportive Boujaad v KAC Kenitra

Union Sportive Boujaad

1–1Full time

KAC Kenitra

Botola 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Union Sportive Boujaad 1–1 KAC Kenitra UNION SPORTIVE BOUJAAD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Sportive Boujaad win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.705

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Sportive Boujaad win at 46%.
2′Much as we predicted: Union Sportive Boujaad was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–30–23
43′We said Union Sportive Boujaad at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–26–64
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Union Sportive Boujaad win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' KAC Kenitra win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Union Sportive Boujaad win 10%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Union Sportive Boujaad win: 46% at kick-off, 42% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Union Sportive Boujaad win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was KAC Kenitra win 22%)
45′HALF-TIME Union Sportive Boujaad 0–1 KAC Kenitra
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Union Sportive Boujaad 0–1 KAC Kenitra
46′SECOND HALF Union Sportive Boujaad 0–1 KAC Kenitra
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Union Sportive Boujaad win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' KAC Kenitra win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Union Sportive Boujaad win 10%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Union Sportive Boujaad win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' KAC Kenitra win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Union Sportive Boujaad win 10%)
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Union Sportive Boujaad win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' KAC Kenitra win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Union Sportive Boujaad win 10%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Union Sportive Boujaad win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' KAC Kenitra win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Union Sportive Boujaad win 10%)
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Union Sportive Boujaad 1–1 KAC Kenitra
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Union Sportive Boujaad 1–1 KAC Kenitra
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Union Sportive Boujaad 1–1 KAC Kenitra
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Union Sportive Boujaad 1–1 KAC Kenitra
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Union Sportive Boujaad 1–1 KAC Kenitra
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Union Sportive Boujaad 1–1 KAC Kenitra
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Union Sportive Boujaad 1–1 KAC Kenitra
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Union Sportive Boujaad 1–1 KAC Kenitra
FTFULL TIME Union Sportive Boujaad 1–1 KAC Kenitra
FTUnion Sportive Boujaad 1–1 KAC Kenitra · Union Sportive Boujaad win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Union Sportive Boujaad win46%

Draw33%

KAC Kenitra win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union sportive boujaad winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Union Sportive Boujaad a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Sportive Boujaad win	46%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
KAC Kenitra win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Union Sportive Boujaad or draw	79%	–	–
Union Sportive Boujaad clean sheet	47%	–	–
KAC Kenitra clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.4%

0123450 15.4 8.9 3.9 1 15.3 14.2 4.8 2 10.3 7.8 2.9 3 4.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Sportive Boujaad down, KAC Kenitra across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,460 Botola 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Sportive Boujaad at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). KAC Kenitra away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Union Sportive Boujaad, 0.76 for KAC Kenitra. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAC 2–1 UNI · UNI 1–1 KAC

Form · last six in Botola 2

UNION SPORTIVE BOUJAAD

DWWWDL0–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–3

KAC KENITRA

LLDWLL1–2 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wydad Fès	2	+4	6
2	Yacoub El Mansour	2	+3	6
3	Ittihad Khemisset	2	+2	6
4	USM Oujda	2	+2	6
5	El Massira	2	+1	4
6	Olympique Safi	2	+1	4
7	Olympique Khouribga	2	+3	3
8	Chabab Ben Guerir	2	+1	3
9	Mouloudia Oujda	2	0	3
10	Olympique Dcheïra	2	0	3
11	Riadi Salmi	2	−2	1
12	Union Sportive Boujaad	2	−3	1
13	Stade Marocain	2	−2	0
14	KAC Kenitra	2	−2	0
15	Chabab Mohammédia	2	−3	0
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	2	−5	0