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Stade Marocain v Chabab Atl. Khenifra

Stade Marocain

2–1Full time

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

Botola 2 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Stade Marocain 2–1 Chabab Atl. Khenifra STADE MAROCAIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stade Marocain win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.491

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stade Marocain win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Stade Marocain was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–34–23
1′KICK-OFF Stade Marocain v Chabab Atl. Khenifra
21′We published Stade Marocain at 43%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–16–6
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Stade Marocain 1–0 Chabab Atl. Khenifra
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Stade Marocain win: 43% at kick-off, 78% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
36′We published Stade Marocain at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
45′HALF-TIME Stade Marocain 1–0 Chabab Atl. Khenifra
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Stade Marocain
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Stade Marocain win: 43% at kick-off, 32% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Stade Marocain win 32%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Stade Marocain 1–0 Chabab Atl. Khenifra
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Stade Marocain win: 43% at kick-off, 81% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Stade Marocain win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
46′SECOND HALF Stade Marocain 1–0 Chabab Atl. Khenifra
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Stade Marocain win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
55′We said Stade Marocain at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–55–17
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Stade Marocain 1–1 Chabab Atl. Khenifra
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Stade Marocain win: 43% at kick-off, 28% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Stade Marocain win 28%)
62′We said Stade Marocain at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–61–15
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Stade Marocain win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
70′We said Stade Marocain at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–12
77′We said Stade Marocain at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–78–9
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Stade Marocain win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
82′We said Stade Marocain at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
89′We said Stade Marocain at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Stade Marocain win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
93′We published Stade Marocain at 43%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Stade Marocain 2–1 Chabab Atl. Khenifra
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Stade Marocain win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Stade Marocain win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
94′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
96′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+6' Stade Marocain
96′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+6' Chabab Atl. Khenifra
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+6' Stade Marocain win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Stade Marocain win 1%)
FTFULL TIME Stade Marocain 2–1 Chabab Atl. Khenifra
FTStade Marocain 2–1 Chabab Atl. Khenifra · Stade Marocain win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stade Marocain are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stade Marocain 43%, draw 34%, Chabab Atl. Khenifra 23%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Stade Marocain v Chabab Atl. KhenifraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stade Marocain win43%

Draw34%

Chabab Atl. Khenifra win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stade Marocain

Chabab Atl. Khenifra

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Botola 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Stade Marocain	3	−1	3
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	3	−5	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stade marocain winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Stade Marocain a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stade Marocain v Chabab Atl. Khenifra~~1.14 – 0.75

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W0 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~11 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stade Marocain win	43%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Chabab Atl. Khenifra win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Stade Marocain or draw	77%	–	–
Stade Marocain clean sheet	47%	–	–
Chabab Atl. Khenifra clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.8%

0123450 16.8 9.7 4.3 1 15.6 14.4 4.8 2 9.8 7.3 2.8 3 3.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stade Marocain down, Chabab Atl. Khenifra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Botola 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stade Marocain at home: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chabab Atl. Khenifra away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Stade Marocain, 0.75 for Chabab Atl. Khenifra. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–0 STA · STA 0–0 CHA · STA 1–1 CHA · CHA 0–1 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 27 Sept

STADE MAROCAIN

LLW1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

CHABAB ATL. KHENIFRA

LLD1–2 · 0–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	3	+4	9
2	Ittihad Khemisset	3	+3	9
3	USM Oujda	3	+2	7
4	Olympique Dcheïra	3	+2	6
5	Wydad Fès	3	+2	6
6	El Massira	3	+1	5
7	Olympique Safi	3	+1	5
8	Mouloudia Oujda	3	0	4
9	Olympique Khouribga	3	+2	3
10	Chabab Ben Guerir	3	0	3
11	Stade Marocain	3	−1	3
12	Union Sportive Boujaad	3	−3	2
13	KAC Kenitra	3	−2	1
14	Chabab Mohammédia	3	−3	1
15	Riadi Salmi	3	−3	1
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	3	−5	1