Riadi Salmi v Olympique Dcheïra prediction · Botola 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Riadi Salmi 1–4 Olympique Dcheïra RIADI SALMI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Riadi Salmi win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.761

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Riadi Salmi win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Riadi Salmi was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–29
1′KICK-OFF Riadi Salmi v Olympique Dcheïra
8′We published Riadi Salmi at 39%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–10
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Riadi Salmi 1–0 Olympique Dcheïra
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Riadi Salmi win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Riadi Salmi 1–1 Olympique Dcheïra
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Riadi Salmi win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
28′We said Riadi Salmi at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–23–65
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Riadi Salmi 1–2 Olympique Dcheïra
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Riadi Salmi win: 39% at kick-off, 12% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Olympique Dcheïra win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Riadi Salmi win 12%)
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 12–23–65
40′We said Riadi Salmi at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Riadi Salmi win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
45′HALF-TIME Riadi Salmi 1–2 Olympique Dcheïra
46′SECOND HALF Riadi Salmi 1–2 Olympique Dcheïra
57′We said Riadi Salmi at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Riadi Salmi 1–3 Olympique Dcheïra
58′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–95
62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Olympique Dcheïra
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Riadi Salmi 1–3 Olympique Dcheïra
83′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Riadi Salmi 1–4 Olympique Dcheïra
94′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+4' Riadi Salmi
94′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+4' Olympique Dcheïra
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Olympique Dcheïra win 1%)
FTFULL TIME Riadi Salmi 1–4 Olympique Dcheïra
FTRiadi Salmi 1–4 Olympique Dcheïra · Riadi Salmi win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Riadi Salmi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Riadi Salmi 39%, draw 32%, Olympique Dcheïra 29%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Riadi Salmi v Olympique DcheïraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Riadi Salmi win39%

Draw32%

Olympique Dcheïra win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueStade municipal de Berrechid

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Riadi Salmi

Olympique Dcheïra

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Botola 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Olympique Dcheïra	3	+2	6
15	Riadi Salmi	3	−3	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · riadi salmi winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Riadi Salmi a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Riadi Salmi v Olympique Dcheïra~~1.20 – 1.00

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 6~~15 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Riadi Salmi win	39%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Olympique Dcheïra win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Riadi Salmi or draw	71%	–	–
Riadi Salmi clean sheet	37%	–	–
Olympique Dcheïra clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.8%

0123450 12.9 9.5 5.5 1 11.7 14.8 6.6 2.2 2 8.0 7.9 3.9 3 3.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Riadi Salmi down, Olympique Dcheïra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Botola 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Riadi Salmi at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Olympique Dcheïra away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Riadi Salmi, 1.00 for Olympique Dcheïra. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RIA 0–3 OLY · OLY 1–2 RIA · OLY 1–2 RIA · RIA 0–0 OLY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept

RIADI SALMI

LDL0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

OLYMPIQUE DCHEÏRA

WLW1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	4	+4	10
2	Ittihad Khemisset	3	+3	9
3	USM Oujda	3	+2	7
4	Olympique Dcheïra	3	+2	6
5	Wydad Fès	3	+2	6
6	Stade Marocain	4	0	6
7	Olympique Safi	3	+1	5
8	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5
9	El Massira	4	0	5
10	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
11	KAC Kenitra	4	−1	4
12	Olympique Khouribga	3	+2	3
13	Union Sportive Boujaad	4	−3	3
14	Chabab Mohammédia	3	−3	1
15	Riadi Salmi	3	−3	1
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	4	−6	1