Olympique Safi v Ittihad Khemisset prediction · Botola 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31

Olympique Safi 1–0 Ittihad Khemisset OLYMPIQUE SAFI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Olympique Safi win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.477

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Olympique Safi win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Olympique Safi 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–33–23
1′KICK-OFF Olympique Safi v Ittihad Khemisset
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Olympique Safi win 37%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Olympique Safi win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Olympique Safi 0–0 Ittihad Khemisset
46′SECOND HALF Olympique Safi 0–0 Ittihad Khemisset
47′We said Olympique Safi at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–48–19
54′We said Olympique Safi at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
64′We said Olympique Safi at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Olympique Safi win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
71′We said Olympique Safi at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
77′We said Olympique Safi at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Olympique Safi win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
82′We said Olympique Safi at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
89′We said Olympique Safi at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 1–0 · 97–3–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Olympique Safi 1–0 Ittihad Khemisset
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Olympique Safi win: 44% at kick-off, 97% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Olympique Safi win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
FTFULL TIME Olympique Safi 1–0 Ittihad Khemisset
FTOlympique Safi 1–0 Ittihad Khemisset · Olympique Safi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Olympique Safi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Olympique Safi 44%, draw 33%, Ittihad Khemisset 23%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Olympique Safi v Ittihad KhemissetBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Olympique Safi win44%

Draw33%

Ittihad Khemisset win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueStade El Massira

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Olympique Safi

Ittihad Khemisset

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Botola 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Ittihad Khemisset	3	+3	9
7	Olympique Safi	3	+1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · olympique safi winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Olympique Safi a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Olympique Safi v Ittihad Khemisset~~1.19 – 0.78

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D2 L0 · W3 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~7 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Olympique Safi win	44%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Ittihad Khemisset win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Olympique Safi or draw	77%	–	–
Olympique Safi clean sheet	46%	–	–
Ittihad Khemisset clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.6%

0123450 15.6 9.3 4.3 1 14.9 14.4 5.0 2 9.8 7.6 3.0 3 3.9 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Olympique Safi down, Ittihad Khemisset across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Botola 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Olympique Safi at home: 1.00 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 1). Ittihad Khemisset away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Olympique Safi, 0.78 for Ittihad Khemisset. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept

OLYMPIQUE SAFI

DWD0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

ITTIHAD KHEMISSET

WWW2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	4	+4	10
2	Ittihad Khemisset	3	+3	9
3	USM Oujda	3	+2	7
4	Olympique Dcheïra	3	+2	6
5	Wydad Fès	3	+2	6
6	Stade Marocain	4	0	6
7	Olympique Safi	3	+1	5
8	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5
9	El Massira	4	0	5
10	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
11	KAC Kenitra	4	−1	4
12	Olympique Khouribga	3	+2	3
13	Union Sportive Boujaad	4	−3	3
14	Chabab Mohammédia	3	−3	1
15	Riadi Salmi	3	−3	1
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	4	−6	1