Mouloudia Oujda v Chabab Ben Guerir prediction · Botola 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Mouloudia Oujda 2–2 Chabab Ben Guerir MOULOUDIA OUJDA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mouloudia Oujda win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.684

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mouloudia Oujda are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mouloudia Oujda 43%, draw 33%, Chabab Ben Guerir 24%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Mouloudia Oujda v Chabab Ben GuerirBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mouloudia Oujda win43%

Draw33%

Chabab Ben Guerir win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueHonneur Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mouloudia Oujda

Chabab Ben Guerir

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Botola 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Mouloudia Oujda	3	0	4
10	Chabab Ben Guerir	3	0	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mouloudia oujda winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Mouloudia Oujda a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mouloudia Oujda v Chabab Ben Guerir~~1.18 – 0.81

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 3~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mouloudia Oujda win	43%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Chabab Ben Guerir win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Mouloudia Oujda or draw	76%	–	–
Mouloudia Oujda clean sheet	45%	–	–
Chabab Ben Guerir clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.4%

0123450 15.4 9.5 4.5 1 14.5 14.6 5.3 2 9.5 7.6 3.1 3 3.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mouloudia Oujda down, Chabab Ben Guerir across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Botola 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mouloudia Oujda at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Chabab Ben Guerir away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Mouloudia Oujda, 0.81 for Chabab Ben Guerir. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MOU 1–1 CHA · CHA 1–1 MOU · CHA 1–1 MOU · MOU 0–2 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 27 Sept

MOULOUDIA OUJDA

LWD1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2

CHABAB BEN GUERIR

WLL2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	3	+4	9
2	Ittihad Khemisset	3	+3	9
3	USM Oujda	3	+2	7
4	Olympique Dcheïra	3	+2	6
5	Wydad Fès	3	+2	6
6	El Massira	3	+1	5
7	Olympique Safi	3	+1	5
8	Mouloudia Oujda	3	0	4
9	Olympique Khouribga	3	+2	3
10	Chabab Ben Guerir	3	0	3
11	Stade Marocain	3	−1	3
12	Union Sportive Boujaad	3	−3	2
13	KAC Kenitra	3	−2	1
14	Chabab Mohammédia	3	−3	1
15	Riadi Salmi	3	−3	1
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	3	−5	1