KAC Kenitra v USM Oujda prediction · Botola 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KAC KenitraDrawUSM Oujda

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · KAC Kenitra 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KAC Kenitra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KAC Kenitra 43%, draw 33%, USM Oujda 24%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on KAC Kenitra v USM OujdaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

KAC Kenitra win43%

Draw33%

USM Oujda win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KAC Kenitra

USM Oujda

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Botola 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	USM Oujda	4	−1	7
11	KAC Kenitra	5	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kac kenitra winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make KAC Kenitra a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KAC Kenitra v USM Oujda~~1.21 – 0.85

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 7~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KAC Kenitra win	43%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
USM Oujda win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
KAC Kenitra or draw	76%	–	–
KAC Kenitra clean sheet	43%	–	–
USM Oujda clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.6%

0123450 14.5 9.1 4.6 1 13.8 14.6 5.5 2 9.4 7.9 3.3 3 3.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KAC Kenitra down, USM Oujda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,480 Botola 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.9% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KAC Kenitra at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). USM Oujda away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for KAC Kenitra, 0.85 for USM Oujda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KAC 0–0 USM · USM 1–1 KAC · KAC 0–0 USM · USM 2–1 KAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept

KAC KENITRA

LLDWD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

USM OUJDA

WWDL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	5	+4	11
2	Wydad Fès	5	+5	10
3	Olympique Dcheïra	5	+5	10
4	Ittihad Khemisset	4	+2	9
5	Olympique Safi	5	0	8
6	Stade Marocain	5	0	7
7	USM Oujda	4	−1	7
8	Olympique Khouribga	5	+2	5
9	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5
10	El Massira	4	0	5
11	KAC Kenitra	5	−1	5
12	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
13	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	5	−4	4
14	Union Sportive Boujaad	4	−3	3
15	Chabab Mohammédia	4	−3	2
16	Riadi Salmi	4	−6	1