KAC Kenitra v El Massira prediction · Botola 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

KAC Kenitra 1–0 El Massira KAC KENITRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KAC Kenitra win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.554

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KAC Kenitra win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: KAC Kenitra 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–33–27
1′KICK-OFF KAC Kenitra v El Massira
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was KAC Kenitra win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME KAC Kenitra 0–0 El Massira
46′SECOND HALF KAC Kenitra 0–0 El Massira
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' KAC Kenitra win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
52′We said KAC Kenitra at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' KAC Kenitra 1–0 El Massira
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' KAC Kenitra win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' KAC Kenitra win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
53′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 79–17–4
55′We said KAC Kenitra at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
60′We said KAC Kenitra at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
68′We said KAC Kenitra at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' KAC Kenitra win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
78′We said KAC Kenitra at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
84′We said KAC Kenitra at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′We said KAC Kenitra at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–3
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' KAC Kenitra win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
94′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+4' KAC Kenitra
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' KAC Kenitra win: 39% at kick-off, 1% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was KAC Kenitra win 1%)
FTFULL TIME KAC Kenitra 1–0 El Massira
FTKAC Kenitra 1–0 El Massira · KAC Kenitra win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KAC Kenitra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KAC Kenitra 39%, draw 33%, El Massira 27%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on KAC Kenitra v El MassiraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

KAC Kenitra win39%

Draw33%

El Massira win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KAC Kenitra

El Massira

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Botola 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	El Massira	3	+1	5
13	KAC Kenitra	3	−2	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kac kenitra winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make KAC Kenitra a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KAC Kenitra v El Massira~~1.14 – 0.91

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 5~~13 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KAC Kenitra win	39%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
El Massira win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
KAC Kenitra or draw	73%	–	–
KAC Kenitra clean sheet	40%	–	–
El Massira clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.9%

0123450 14.6 10.0 5.3 1 13.0 14.9 6.0 2 8.4 7.5 3.4 3 3.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KAC Kenitra down, El Massira across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,468 Botola 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KAC Kenitra at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). El Massira away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for KAC Kenitra, 0.91 for El Massira. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ELM 1–1 KAC · KAC 1–0 ELM · ELM 1–0 KAC · KAC 0–2 ELM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept

KAC KENITRA

LLD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

EL MASSIRA

WDD2–1 · 0–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	3	+4	9
2	Ittihad Khemisset	3	+3	9
3	USM Oujda	3	+2	7
4	Olympique Dcheïra	3	+2	6
5	Wydad Fès	3	+2	6
6	El Massira	3	+1	5
7	Olympique Safi	3	+1	5
8	Mouloudia Oujda	3	0	4
9	Olympique Khouribga	3	+2	3
10	Chabab Ben Guerir	3	0	3
11	Stade Marocain	3	−1	3
12	Union Sportive Boujaad	3	−3	2
13	KAC Kenitra	3	−2	1
14	Chabab Mohammédia	3	−3	1
15	Riadi Salmi	3	−3	1
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	3	−5	1