Ittihad Khemisset v Mouloudia Oujda prediction · Botola 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ittihad KhemissetDrawMouloudia Oujda

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ittihad Khemisset 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ittihad Khemisset are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ittihad Khemisset 44%, draw 32%, Mouloudia Oujda 24%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Ittihad Khemisset v Mouloudia OujdaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ittihad Khemisset win44%

Draw32%

Mouloudia Oujda win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ittihad Khemisset

Mouloudia Oujda

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Botola 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ittihad Khemisset	4	+2	9
8	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ittihad khemisset winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Ittihad Khemisset a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ittihad Khemisset v Mouloudia Oujda~~1.29 – 0.88

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 27 Sept~~W3 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 5~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ittihad Khemisset win	44%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Mouloudia Oujda win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Ittihad Khemisset or draw	76%	–	–
Ittihad Khemisset clean sheet	42%	–	–
Mouloudia Oujda clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 13.2 8.6 4.5 1 13.0 14.3 5.6 2 9.4 8.2 3.6 3 4.1 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ittihad Khemisset down, Mouloudia Oujda across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,476 Botola 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Ittihad Khemisset at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mouloudia Oujda away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Ittihad Khemisset, 0.88 for Mouloudia Oujda. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 27 Sept

ITTIHAD KHEMISSET

WWWL2–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

MOULOUDIA OUJDA

LWDD1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	4	+4	10
2	Olympique Dcheïra	4	+5	9
3	Wydad Fès	4	+5	9
4	Ittihad Khemisset	4	+2	9
5	Olympique Safi	4	+2	8
6	USM Oujda	4	−1	7
7	Stade Marocain	4	0	6
8	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5
9	El Massira	4	0	5
10	Olympique Khouribga	4	+2	4
11	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
12	KAC Kenitra	4	−1	4
13	Union Sportive Boujaad	4	−3	3
14	Chabab Mohammédia	4	−3	2
15	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	4	−6	1
16	Riadi Salmi	4	−6	1