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Chabab Mohammédia v Olympique Khouribga

Chabab Mohammédia

1–1Full time

Olympique Khouribga

Botola 2 · SUN 18 OCT · Stade El Bachir

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Chabab Mohammédia 1–1 Olympique Khouribga CHABAB MOHAMMÉDIA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Chabab Mohammédia win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.698

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chabab Mohammédia win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chabab Mohammédia 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–33–26
1′KICK-OFF Chabab Mohammédia v Olympique Khouribga
2′We said Chabab Mohammédia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Chabab Mohammédia 0–1 Olympique Khouribga
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Chabab Mohammédia win: 42% at kick-off, 19% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Olympique Khouribga win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Chabab Mohammédia win 19%)
6′GOAL DISALLOWED · 6' Olympique Khouribga
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Chabab Mohammédia win: 42% at kick-off, 41% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Chabab Mohammédia win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Olympique Khouribga win 26%)
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Chabab Mohammédia 0–1 Olympique Khouribga
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Chabab Mohammédia win: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Olympique Khouribga win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Chabab Mohammédia win 18%)
22′We said Chabab Mohammédia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–63
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Chabab Mohammédia 1–1 Olympique Khouribga
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Chabab Mohammédia win: 42% at kick-off, 36% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Olympique Khouribga win 24%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Chabab Mohammédia win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
45′HALF-TIME Chabab Mohammédia 1–1 Olympique Khouribga
46′SECOND HALF Chabab Mohammédia 1–1 Olympique Khouribga
51′We said Chabab Mohammédia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–49–21
53′We said Chabab Mohammédia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–20
63′We said Chabab Mohammédia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Chabab Mohammédia win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Chabab Mohammédia win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
83′We said Chabab Mohammédia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–85–6
89′We said Chabab Mohammédia at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Chabab Mohammédia win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Chabab Mohammédia 1–1 Olympique Khouribga
FTChabab Mohammédia 1–1 Olympique Khouribga · Chabab Mohammédia win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chabab Mohammédia are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chabab Mohammédia 42%, draw 32%, Olympique Khouribga 26%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Chabab Mohammédia v Olympique KhouribgaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chabab Mohammédia win42%

Draw32%

Olympique Khouribga win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 4

VenueStade El Bachir

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chabab Mohammédia

Olympique Khouribga

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Botola 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Olympique Khouribga	3	+2	3
14	Chabab Mohammédia	3	−3	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chabab mohammédia winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Chabab Mohammédia a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chabab Mohammédia v Olympique Khouribga~~1.22 – 0.90

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W0 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chabab Mohammédia win	42%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Olympique Khouribga win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Chabab Mohammédia or draw	74%	–	–
Chabab Mohammédia clean sheet	41%	–	–
Olympique Khouribga clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.6%

0123450 13.7 9.2 4.9 1 12.9 14.6 5.9 2 8.9 7.9 3.6 3 3.7 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chabab Mohammédia down, Olympique Khouribga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,472 Botola 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chabab Mohammédia at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Olympique Khouribga away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Chabab Mohammédia, 0.90 for Olympique Khouribga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–1 OLY · OLY 0–1 CHA · OLY 0–0 CHA · CHA 1–0 OLY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept

CHABAB MOHAMMÉDIA

LLD0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

OLYMPIQUE KHOURIBGA

LWL0–1 · 4–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	4	+4	10
2	Ittihad Khemisset	3	+3	9
3	USM Oujda	3	+2	7
4	Olympique Dcheïra	3	+2	6
5	Wydad Fès	3	+2	6
6	Stade Marocain	4	0	6
7	Olympique Safi	3	+1	5
8	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5
9	El Massira	4	0	5
10	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
11	KAC Kenitra	4	−1	4
12	Olympique Khouribga	3	+2	3
13	Union Sportive Boujaad	4	−3	3
14	Chabab Mohammédia	3	−3	1
15	Riadi Salmi	3	−3	1
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	4	−6	1