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Chabab Ben Guerir v Stade Marocain

Chabab Ben Guerir

0–1Full time

Stade Marocain

Botola 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain CHABAB BEN GUERIR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chabab Ben Guerir win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.857

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chabab Ben Guerir win at 41%.
2′KICK-OFF Chabab Ben Guerir v Stade Marocain
4′Much as we predicted: Chabab Ben Guerir was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–33–26
45′HALF-TIME Chabab Ben Guerir 0–0 Stade Marocain
46′SECOND HALF Chabab Ben Guerir 0–0 Stade Marocain
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
FTFULL TIME Chabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain
FTChabab Ben Guerir 0–1 Stade Marocain · Chabab Ben Guerir win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chabab Ben Guerir win41%

Draw35%

Stade Marocain win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chabab ben guerir winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Chabab Ben Guerir a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chabab Ben Guerir win	41%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Stade Marocain win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Chabab Ben Guerir or draw	76%	–	–
Chabab Ben Guerir clean sheet	46%	–	–
Stade Marocain clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.3%

0123450 17.3 10.5 4.7 1 15.2 14.6 5.1 2 9.1 7.0 2.7 3 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chabab Ben Guerir down, Stade Marocain across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,460 Botola 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chabab Ben Guerir at home: 0.67 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stade Marocain away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Chabab Ben Guerir, 0.78 for Stade Marocain. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2020

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 12

~~Both scored~~3 of 12

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–0 STA · STA 2–0 CHA · STA 2–2 CHA · CHA 0–0 STA

Form · last six in Botola 2

CHABAB BEN GUERIR

DDDDWL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

STADE MAROCAIN

WWLLLL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Wydad Fès	2	+4	6
2	Yacoub El Mansour	2	+3	6
3	Ittihad Khemisset	2	+2	6
4	USM Oujda	2	+2	6
5	El Massira	2	+1	4
6	Olympique Safi	2	+1	4
7	Olympique Khouribga	2	+3	3
8	Chabab Ben Guerir	2	+1	3
9	Mouloudia Oujda	2	0	3
10	Olympique Dcheïra	2	0	3
11	Riadi Salmi	2	−2	1
12	Union Sportive Boujaad	2	−3	1
13	Stade Marocain	2	−2	0
14	KAC Kenitra	2	−2	0
15	Chabab Mohammédia	2	−3	0
16	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	2	−5	0