Chabab Ben Guerir v Chabab Mohammédia prediction · Botola 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Chabab Ben GuerirDrawChabab Mohammédia

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Chabab Ben Guerir 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chabab Ben Guerir are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chabab Ben Guerir 43%, draw 34%, Chabab Mohammédia 23%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Chabab Ben Guerir v Chabab MohammédiaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Chabab Ben Guerir win43%

Draw34%

Chabab Mohammédia win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chabab Ben Guerir

Chabab Mohammédia

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Botola 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Botola 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
14	Chabab Mohammédia	4	−3	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chabab ben guerir winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Chabab Ben Guerir a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chabab Ben Guerir v Chabab Mohammédia~~1.14 – 0.75

~~Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W0 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 2~~11 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chabab Ben Guerir win	43%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Chabab Mohammédia win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	29%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Chabab Ben Guerir or draw	77%	–	–
Chabab Ben Guerir clean sheet	47%	–	–
Chabab Mohammédia clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.9%

0123450 16.9 9.8 4.3 1 15.6 14.4 4.8 2 9.8 7.2 2.7 3 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chabab Ben Guerir down, Chabab Mohammédia across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,480 Botola 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Botola 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.9% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chabab Ben Guerir at home: 0.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chabab Mohammédia away: 0.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Chabab Ben Guerir, 0.75 for Chabab Mohammédia. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MOH 0–3 BEN · BEN 0–0 MOH · MOH 1–0 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Botola 2 this season · since 26 Sept

CHABAB BEN GUERIR

WLLD2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

CHABAB MOHAMMÉDIA

LLDD0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Yacoub El Mansour	4	+4	10
2	Olympique Dcheïra	4	+5	9
3	Wydad Fès	4	+5	9
4	Ittihad Khemisset	4	+2	9
5	Olympique Safi	4	+2	8
6	USM Oujda	4	−1	7
7	Stade Marocain	4	0	6
8	Mouloudia Oujda	4	0	5
9	El Massira	4	0	5
10	Olympique Khouribga	4	+2	4
11	Chabab Ben Guerir	4	0	4
12	KAC Kenitra	4	−1	4
13	Union Sportive Boujaad	4	−3	3
14	Chabab Mohammédia	4	−3	2
15	Chabab Atl. Khenifra	4	−6	1
16	Riadi Salmi	4	−6	1